Friday, October 30, 2009

Here is an hourly chart showing day session e-mini trading. Today's break took me by surprise - the drop below yesterday's midpoint at 1054.50 was the signal that something was wrong with today's bullish outlook.

Since yesterday's high at 1064 was a lower top I have to expect that the market will drop visibly below Wednesday's low at 1037.25. So far today we have hit 1033 but I am guessing that the e-minis will drop further to 1025 or so before turning around (green oval). Already midpoint support at 1044 and support at the last top at 1038 have been broken decisively. By itself this is not enough to force me off of my "up to 1120" scenario for the next few weeks. But any significant activity below the 1008 level would mean that the market will drop even lower, to 960 or so. The last low on the way up was at 1012 on October 12. The June-July break was 91 points and a drop from 1099 of that size would take the market down to 1008.

I want to emphasize that I still think this break is a good buying opportunity and that my "line in the sand" will not be breeched.

Broke support

This morning I was leaning on the 1054.50 level, the mid-point of yesterday's day session range, as support for any reaction from yesterday's 1064.00 high. That level was just broken decisively to the downside. I don't see any more support for this market until it reaches the 1035 level. However, I do think this up and down action is part of a base building process that should end early next week and be followed by a sustained up trend to 1120.

sold one unit at 1051.00

long one unit at 1057.00

Guesstimates on October 30, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1054-70. The market is on its way to 1120.

QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

1037.25 was the low of the correction

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. I think last night's low at 1037.25 ended the drop from 1099. At the low the market had penetrated the rising, green dash trend line by about 3 points, had matched almost exactly the size of the late-September to early-October reaction (green dash rectangle), and had dropped just a tad below support at 1039 defined by the late August temporary high point (horizontal red dash line). This morning's rally has been persistent and has carried the market well above the midpoint of yesterday's day session range at 1049.25. All these signs are evidence that the drop from 1099 is over.

The initial leg up will probably match the size of the biggest reaction on the way down - about 25 points (purple rectangles). This would bring the e-minis up to 1062-63, a level that is also midpoint resistance (purple dotted line). After a reaction from there which should end at a higher low the market will resume an advance that I expect will carry it to 1120 or higher.

Guesstimates on October 29, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1038-53. The market has started a base building process and will soon begin a move to 1120.

QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

sold long unit at 1046.50

Stil long one unit - cancelled limit sell order

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Late post

I have decided to put in an overnight limit order to sell my long unit at 1045 or better.

I expect to repurchase this unit Thursday and possibly buy the second one provided the market can hold the 1035 level.

Still long one unit and will hold overnight

Scraping bottom

Here is an hourly chart showing day session e-mini trading. The market has dropped into the 1045-50 downside target zone (green oval).

There is strong support here. At the 1049 level the length of this reaction would have equaled the average length of the three preceding reactions on the way up from the early July low at 866 (purple rectangle). The 1044 level is midpoint support based on last reaction which carried the e-minis down from 1076 to a low at 1012 (electronic) on October 2 (purple dotted line). The rising trend line from previous reaction lows now stands at about the 1040 level.

I think the next day or two will be spent trading sideways between 1040 and 1065. By the beginning of next week a rally to 1120 should be underway.

Long one unit at 1053.25

Guesstimates on October 28, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1048-63. The market should start a base building process today and by the end of the week start a move to 1120.

QQQ: Support is at 42.30. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Update

Here is an hourly bar chart showing day session e-mini trading. The market has traded sideways for most of the day. An early break below yesterday's low on the consumer confidence number was quickly reversed. This makes me think that the e-minis will rally a little more and probably match the size of the early rally on Monday (purple rectangles).

By the end of the week I think the market will have dropped into the 1045-50 target zone highlighted by the green oval. The 1050 level would make this break the same size as the average of the past three reaction since the early July low at 866. The target are is also at the confluence of two trend lines you see on this chart.

Thus far I have no reason to think the drop from 1099 in the e-minis is anything but a normal correction within an ongoing up trend. If I am right about this then I think the market will soon begin a rally that will take it to 1120.

Guesstimates on October 27, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1055-1072. The market is on its way to 1050.

QQQ: Support is at 42.30. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Yo-Yo redux

Here is a 60 minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. Earlier this morning the market put in a wide range up bar which carried it above the range of most of Friday's trading. This convinced me that the e-minis had started the move to 1120 that I have been anticipating.

Instead the e-minis pulled yet another U-turn, this time on very high volume (second set of blue arrows. Volume matched the level it attained on Thursday's late break and the market dropped to new reaction lows. The sellers have reasserted their control over this market. I am going back to my original downside target for this reaction which should be reached later this week. It is the green oval which marks the confluence of a rising trendline, a declining trendline, and the bottom of a reaction (purple rectangle) that would match the average length of the last three reactions on the way up from the early July low at 866.

sold long unit at 1081.25

Long one unit at 1086.00

The Yo-Yo

After today's pit open the e-minis rallied nearly 10 points on moderate volume. This is an uncorrected move off of the Thursday-Friday double bottom near 1071. I have to respect this bullish activity since I am still expecting a move to 1120. I conclude, therefore, that this market is on its way to 1120 and that the 1050 level is no longer a likely target. If I'm right about this support at 1080 should hold. Today's high will probably be 1096 or so.

Guesstimates on October 26, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1065-1082. The market is now on its way to 1050.

QQQ: Support is at 42.30. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Update


Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading. The market has dropped decisively below yesterday's midpoint at 1081.50. From this I conclude that a lower top was established this morning and that the reaction which started from the 1099 level has further to go.

The purple rectangle delimits a reaction which matches the average length of the three previous corrections in the e-minis since the early July low at 866. Thus my downside target of 1050. I think this entire drop will continue well into next week. There should be one or two up days along the way.

The next temporary low (green oval) will probably occur against one of the two declining red dash trend lines. I note that the 1064 level is also the midpoint between the October 2008 low of 837 and the high of September 2008 at 1291 (higher purple dotted line).

By the time this correction ends I expect the market to kiss the rising green trend line which should then have reached the 1050 area. The 1054 level is the midpoint between the May 2008 high of 1442 and the March 2009 low at 666 (lower purple dotted line).

Once this drop ends I expect the e-minis to resume their advance and move up to 1120 or above.

Now headed down to 1050 !

Jumbled

Here is a thirty minute bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading. I always try to follow the market's trend as indicated by unusual activity (high volume and/or uncorrected price movements). I also try to follow the trend as indicated by sequences of successively higher or successively lower trading areas (blue rectangles).

After the housing number came out at 10am this morning the e-minis pulled a high volume, u-turn that broke the market out of its overnight trading range (last blue rectangle). This action forced me out of my long position even though the bottom of my range estimate was 1085. The reason I ignored the range estimate is that the high volume selling started at almost exactly the same price as Wednesdays high volume selling (red arrows). I figured that the same sellers were at work. The big uncertainty now is just how much ammunition they have left in their clip.

I still think that the odds favor the market heading for 1120 instead of for 1050. The critical line of support I am watching is the midpoint of yesterday's range (green dash line). If the market holds it I will try to get long later today or on Monday.

sold long unit at 1085.50

long one unit at 1089.75

Guesstimates on October 23, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1085-1100. The market is now on its way to 1120.

QQQ: Support is at 42.30. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Headed for 1120

Moment of truth

Here is a 30 minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. The market has rallied more than would be normal after a supply shock like yesterday's last hour break. Even so, I want to give the bearish case a little leeway. I am leaning on the midpoint of yesterday's range at 1085.50 (purple dotted line) and on the upper channel line of the bearish trend channel I have drawn. Any strength above the red resistance oval I have drawn will mean that the market is headed for 1120, not 1050.

covered second unit at 1080.00

covered one unit at 1079.75

Short second unit at 1075.50

Supply shock

Here is an hourly chart showing day session e-mini trading. After yesterday's close I had a chance to reevaluate the market's action. The last hour break now looks like a clearly defined supply shock (blue oval and arrow). As such it should not be significantly retraced, and I think the 1080 level will act as resistance for the rest of the move down.

How low will we go? During the move up from the early July low at 866 there have been three significant breaks of 40, 47, and 63 points. The average is 50 points. A break of this size from the 1099 electronic high would carry the market down to 1049 (purple rectangle). I expect this down move to last a week or so. By the time the low develops I think the rising lower channel line (green dashes) will have moved up to also provide support near 1050.

I think this initial break will find initial support in the 1060-65 range from which zone a rally to 1080 or so should develop. After that the final break to 1050 or so becomes likely. (purple arrows).

Short one unit at 1079.00

Guesstimates on October 22, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1065-1080. I now think the drop from yesterday's high will carry the e-minis down to 1050 or so over the next few days. I am still expecting a rally to 1120 or higher after this break ends.

QQQ: Support is at 42.30. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Late Break

The e-minis dropped more than 20 points during the last hour of trading. The market dropped a couple of points past support defined by the last top at 1075.75. However, I think we are not far from the low of this reaction. My best guess is that it will develop near 1066 sometime tomorrow.

sold other unit at 1092.50

sold one unit at 1092.00

Long second unit at 1094.00

Long one unit at 1093.00

Guesstimates on October 21, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1075-1090. The market should reach 1120 by the end of the month.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. This morning I thought that the market would hold support at 1087 and rally into the 1100-05 range. Instead it has dropped to within few points of the low of the trading range of the past 5 days.

The September top at 1076 (horizontal dash green line) should prove to be strong support. It coincides with the low of the recent trading range. So far the e-minis have dropped from yesterday's day session high by an amount just about equal to the size of the last reaction on the way up from the October 2 low (purple rectangles). I expect to see a reaction low in the 1075-80 range (green oval) which should be followed by a rally to roughly the 1110 level.

sold both units at 1086.00

Repurchased one unit at 1090.00

sold one unit at 1089.25

Long second unit at 1091.75

Long one unit at 1092.00

Guesstimates on October 20, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1087-1103. The market should reach 1120 by the end of the month.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance at 76.00 has been broken but not by much.

GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Why I got out

I sold my long position at 1095.25 a few minutes ago because the market has traded sideways in a narrow range right at its previous high of 1095.50 (electronic early last Friday). This was too much hesitation at a key level for my taste, so I got out. Better safe than sorry.

sold both units at 1095.25

Update

Here is an hourly chart showing day session e-mini trading. When the market broke out above Friday's day session high of 1088.25 after today's pit open I decided that the early morning low of 1076.75 ended the drop from Friday's electronic high of 1095.50.

My upside target (purple oval) sits between two upper channel lines (green dash lines) in the 1100-05 zone.

I think it likely that the next several trading sessions will see a lot of up and down activity without a lot of net progress past 1105. For the moment support beneath the market stands at the midpoint of the last reaction, near 1086 (purple dotted line).

I expect the e-minis to reach the 1120 level by the end of the month.

Reporting your own trades

Some of my loyal readers want to report their trades in the comments section of this blog.

I have decided to adopt a policy of not publishing such trade reports. My main reason is that such trade reporting just obscures my own message about market direction as it appears in my real time trade posts and analyses on this blog.

I still want to encourage you to tell us of your market views in the comments section. Just not your trades.

Bought second unit at 1090.00

Long one unit at 1089.00 - headed for 1105

Guesstimates on October 19, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: A drop into the 1065-75 range is underway. Today's day session range estimate is again 1075-1090. The market should reach 1120 by the end of the month.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance at 76.00 has been broken but not by much.

GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. The market has rallied off its morning lows but I am guessing that it will halt near 1087-88 and then put in another leg down to a low early next week (declining red channel). Midpoint support stands near 1070 (purple dotted line).

One this reaction is complete I think the e-minis will move above the 1100 level, reaching 1120 by the end of the month.

Guesstimates on October 16, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: A drop into the 1065-75 range is underway. [Today's day session range estimate is again 1075-1090. The market should reach 1120 by the end of the month.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance at 76.00 has been broken but not by much.

GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Next upside target is 550 has nearly been reached. Support is now at 490.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

A new bull market in NYX - the New York Stock Exchange

Here is my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

Some observations

Trading in the e-minis has been quite subdued today. I am guessing that the market is waiting for Google's earnings announcement after today's close. If so, once the number comes out I think the market will sell off. Even if Google's earnings are better than expected a fair number of traders will think the good news is a chance to take profits.

I think the day session low at 1083 will hold for the rest of the session. I am guessing that the market will rally into the 1090-95 range by the close. But I still think a 20-30 point break lies just ahead.

Guesstimates on October 15, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1075-1090. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

At resistance

Here is an hourly bar chart of day session e-mini trading. The market has rallied to a level just below midpoint resistance at 1091 and to within just a few points of the top of its bullish trend channel. Since the e-minis have rallied for nearly two weeks without much of an interruption I think a break of 20-30 points is likely to start soon. I do think that midpoint support near 1070 (purple dotted line) is likely to stop any such reaction. I also believe that the e-minis have a good chance of reaching 1120 by the end of the month.

sold all longs at 1083.25

Dollar is scraping bottom

Check out my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

Long second unit at 1080.25

Long one unit at 1079.50

Guesstimates on October 14, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1075-1090. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

sold second unit at 1069.50 - now flat

sold one unit at 1068.50

Long second unit at 1070.00

At support

Here is a 60 minute chart of day session e-mini trading. This morning the market has dropped to midpoint support (purple dotted line) while putting in a reaction just as big as the biggest preceding reaction within the rally from the October 2 low (purple rectangles). I think the e-minis will stabilize here and later today or tomorrow begin a rally. This next swing upward should carry the market to the top of the bullish trend channel and midpoint resistance near 1092.

Long one unit at 1069.50

Guesstimates on October 13, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1065-1080. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Shanghai Update

I just posted an update on the Chinese stock market on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

Climbing the Wall of Worry

Check out my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

Guesstimates on October 12, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1065-1080. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting 1070. Support is at 970.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.

Friday, October 09, 2009

sold long unit at 1066.00

Long one unit at 1063.00

Guesstimates on October 9, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1053-1070. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting 1070. Support is at 970.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.

Thursday, October 08, 2009

sold both units at 1062.25

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. A move up to 1120 is underway. I think the first significant reaction (20-30 points) will start from the confluence of midpoint resistance at 1092 (red dash line) and the upper bullish channel line.

Meantime there is midpoint support at 1050 (purple dotted line). The biggest reaction on the way up from Friday's low has been about 14 points. If a drop from today's high of that size were to develop it would take the market down to 1052. Obviously, the fact that I am currently long a full position means that I do not expect a reaction of that size today, but I do think a 13-15 point break from the 1075-80 zone is more likely than not.

Long second unit at 1059.00

Long one unit at 1059.50

Guesstimates on October 8, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1056-1075. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting 1070. Support is at 970.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

sold second unit at 1053.00 - now flat

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. The market has been stuck in a 14 point range for the past two days and right now is trading right in the middle of that range. My best guess is that the next move from here will be upward to 1060 and higher. But if I am wrong about that the worst I see on the downside is a break to 1035 or so (lower horizontal dash line) which is support from a previous low and would also be near the lower boundary of the small, bearish trend channel I have drawn.

In either case I think that the market will soon rally to the top of the bullish channel on this chart and reach midpoint resistance at 1092. I am still looking for a move to 1120 during the next few weeks.

sold one unit at 1048.00

Long second unit at 1052.50

Long one unit at 1049.25

Guesstimates on October 7, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1042-1060. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

I plan to reestablish longs in 1040-45 zone

sold long unit at 1049.25

Long one unit at 1049.25

Update

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. The market has moved substantially higher today from the pit open. The rally which started from yesterday's low at 1021 has been 35 points with only a few 3 or 4 point reactions. Volume has not been substantial, but the uncorrected up swing is in my opinion definitive. This is a decisive rejection of prices below the low at 1035 (horizontal green dotted line). The implication is that a strong up swing has begun and that the market is headed for 1120. Meantime the 1035 level will now act as support.

I think that a reaction of 8-12 points is likely to develop from today's high (so far) at 1056.75. But I don't think we'll see a break of as much as 20 points until the e-minis reach the top of the bullish trend channel I have drawn. The 1092 level is midpoint resistance and is a good point from which to expect a drop of 20-25 points.

Guesstimates on October 6, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1035-1050. A move to 1120 is underway.

QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.

GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.