Friday, May 31, 2013

Guesstimates on May 31, 2013



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1636-49. A drop to support in the 1574-1587 zone is probably underway.
QQQ:  Downside target is 72.00.  
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trying to climb back above its 20 day moving average and in the process is reestablishing itself above 1.2920 support. I want to see one more day above the 1.2920 level before I turn bullish.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go.  Support is at 99. The current leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
July Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  I think gold is on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Guesstimates on May 30, 2013



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1648-63. A drop to support in the 1574-1587 zone is probably underway.
QQQ:  Downside target is 72.00.  
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trying to climb back above its 20 day moving average and in the process is reestablishing itself above 1.2920 support. Another day above 1.2920 would turn me bullish again
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go.  Support is at 99. The current leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
July Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  I think gold is on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG has reached and exceeded the 900 target. Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

bubble in Japan?

Here is my latest post on The Art of Contrarian Trading.

Guesstimates on May 29, 2013



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1630-50. It now looks like yesterday’s apparent upside breakout from last week’s trading range ended at a lower top. This leads me to conclude that the ES is headed down to the 1574-1587 zone defined by the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops.
QQQ:  Downside target is 72.00.  
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still trading below it 20 day moving average but is trying to reestablish itself above 1.2920 support. If it succeeds I will turn bullish again but in the meantime the downside target remains 1.2400.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go.  Support is at 99. The current leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
July Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  I think gold is on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG has reached and exceeded the 900 target. Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.