tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post4406447495132921682..comments2023-11-10T05:07:19.026-05:00Comments on Carl Futia: Guesstimates on March 16, 2012Carl Futiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01624989905417650273noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-73895284949356572792012-03-18T08:33:59.690-04:002012-03-18T08:33:59.690-04:00―The Economist‖ indicator, which was so helpful ba...―The Economist‖ indicator, which was so helpful back in 2011 (11/26 – ―Is this <br />really the end of the euro?‖ http://econ.st/u6Y7iU), flashed a warning sign Fri (the latest <br />cover wasn‘t full blown bullish but was on the positive side – ―Can it be….the recovery? <br />http://econ.st/wXBHAS). Economic numbers will (eventually) need to start really <br />meaningfully surprising on the upside (the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell further <br />this week and hit the lowest levels since back in Nov) but this may not be a problem until ...Navhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06774693125142705115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-20124780243071437532012-03-16T15:55:38.662-04:002012-03-16T15:55:38.662-04:00Hi Carl
I mentioned the other day
the possibility...Hi Carl<br />I mentioned the other day <br />the possibility of counting a new<br />advance beginning July 1 2010<br />Also I'm beginning to favor a 3 peaks<br />domed house beginning at that time <br />When correlating this together with <br />the Lindsay time spans there is a few considerations to be made .<br />#1 is this going to become an extended advance running into the Jan - March 2013 time frame ??<br />here is why .<br />a short advance can only run for 684 days max that would imply a top by may 15th 2012 .<br />right now there is a case to be made for a top next week yet based on the 3 peaks domed house pattern we are only at point 15 and this would imply at worst several weeks to months of sideways movement .<br />A Long advance of 765-831 days <br />would target a top from aug 4th to oct 9th . there is a bearish cycle that begins aug 6th and runs into feb 12th i believe next year ( feb anyway ) i have seen this cycle invert ( an aug low would imply a feb top )without going overboard here the basic is this . we should be near a point 15 high , cyclically this should be a top yet that does not mean a bearish cycle has to be a down market now does it ? if this is point 15 then a sideways movement is all we should expect .the 1300 area on spx would be the support area to look for yet im not even sure it will drop that far . the next consideration is the time parameters of a Typical 3 peaks domed house pattern also the fact that points 3 through 7 were a bit short at 7 months we may want to consider points 15 through 20 a bit long ? Lastly the 7 month 10 day count from point 10 on oct 3 2011 may be the peak of either point 15 ( i don't want to count pt 15 it to soon ) or point 17 , this would imply also the end of a short advance .<br />bottom line . Im expecting the overall picture to clear up in the coming weeks and based on pattern alone we have several subdivisions <br />to complete before the 3 peaks domed house pattern can be considered completed .<br />JoeAdsensehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08031892140855200123noreply@blogger.com