tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post5893116049606348502..comments2023-11-10T05:07:19.026-05:00Comments on Carl Futia: Guesstimates on March 30, 2012Carl Futiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01624989905417650273noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-32126145433974359422012-04-01T18:49:52.600-04:002012-04-01T18:49:52.600-04:00The rally’s support pillars have been shaken but n...The rally’s support pillars have been shaken but not broken --the S&P <br />hasn’t done a whole lot since Mon Mar 19 (the day of the now infamous BHP--leveling off <br />China demand remark) and really the last--major move came back on Tues Mar 13 (when <br />the US banks unexpectedly released the results of their stress tests). The 500 may have ended <br />Mar up more than 3% but the last two weeks has been characterized by flattish trading, light <br />volumes, and no convictions. The rally has rested on three key pillars over the last several <br />months: 1▆ Europe’s sovereign crisis abating; 2▆ improving growth expectations; 3▆ very <br />accommodative monetary policy. Lately, this foundation has been shaken a bit (but not <br />broken).<br />☮ ₮ђคɳ₭ ¥σʊ ❀Navhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06774693125142705115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-66349243830085313282012-03-30T12:41:06.413-04:002012-03-30T12:41:06.413-04:00Carl, I think a little more downside needed, perha...Carl, I think a little more downside needed, perhaps bottom around 1370, before we take off.Winhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04040943114916173740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-12508913578067536002012-03-30T12:14:27.537-04:002012-03-30T12:14:27.537-04:00We'll have another 3 or 4 weeks of more sidewa...We'll have another 3 or 4 weeks of more sideways trading in the 1390 1420 range before a rally can take off.<br /><br />Based on the Mclellan Summation Index oscillator, although we are not as overbought as we were in February, we are still overbought. I'd say give it a nother couple of months and we'll have a huge rally, but the market still needs to work off its overbought condition with sideways trading.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15515218349376008994noreply@blogger.com