tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post8834906582085319469..comments2023-11-10T05:07:19.026-05:00Comments on Carl Futia: 12 year trading rangeCarl Futiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01624989905417650273noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-3565746023024359482012-10-05T01:47:48.426-04:002012-10-05T01:47:48.426-04:00It is not uncommon for the market to retrace all t...It is not uncommon for the market to retrace all the bubble phase and even more. <br /><br />This would mean the range similar to 1966-82 scenario that everyone expects to unfold might be too optimistic.<br /><br />Indeed, from a trader's perspective, it not productive to expect a fall to at least 400 on the SPX but it is something that should be kept in mind.isitsohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10986893091472743015noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-40301196897604002952012-10-04T22:16:37.220-04:002012-10-04T22:16:37.220-04:00I don't think you can use the same amount of y...I don't think you can use the same amount of years as we move into the future. Technology has sped up the cycles. The Great Depression was 25 year bear. The 66-82 was 16. That is a reduction of about 30%. Since around 1980 the computer got going so its safe to assume that there should be another reduction in the cycle by 30%. Guess what? It's 12/13. 2012-2013. Everyone sees the same pattern. That's why it could just keep going having everyone scratching thief head b c the news is "so bad"....tmfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07243614073217140545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-39633374670025892462012-10-04T19:33:06.991-04:002012-10-04T19:33:06.991-04:00Very good analysis. And if the market rallies thro...Very good analysis. And if the market rallies through the 2007 highs, the current bull market may be Wave D of a broadening triangle that began in 2000. I can imagine the S&P hitting 1600 in 2013 or 2014 and then crashing back to the 2009 lows later in the decade decade given all of the long term economic dangers.<br /><br />For the short-to-intermediate term, I think that the bull market is in tact, but I expect a 15-20% correction to begin any day now.Graph1159https://www.blogger.com/profile/03033052376445519929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-53224482828848477622012-10-04T16:13:18.238-04:002012-10-04T16:13:18.238-04:00Great post, Carl.
I notice that you use linear sc...Great post, Carl.<br /><br />I notice that you use linear scale on the chart. Have you found linear scale to be more reliable than log scale for charts that have large price differences as this one does?pimaCanyonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09477196225992507658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-70778230319817322662012-10-04T13:53:48.676-04:002012-10-04T13:53:48.676-04:00Thanks for your insightful analysis.
Any thoughts...Thanks for your insightful analysis.<br /><br />Any thoughts on the consequences of restructuring capital gains tax?Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06463951546301302868noreply@blogger.com