tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post8910123933522936268..comments2023-11-10T05:07:19.026-05:00Comments on Carl Futia: Guesstimates on May 19, 2010Carl Futiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01624989905417650273noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-11071037991428275082010-05-19T15:10:49.618-04:002010-05-19T15:10:49.618-04:00I dont think that the market will actually reach 1...I dont think that the market will actually reach 1200 but the next move up will support Carls 1200 thesis until next week at least... <br /><br />For now more blue skys ....ravenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16780882370735731615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-48939200888464768192010-05-19T12:19:59.250-04:002010-05-19T12:19:59.250-04:00Where's the money going into with this selloff...Where's the money going into with this selloff to 450? Hard gold?Me XManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13867311283909743128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-27714280793721464752010-05-19T12:07:09.311-04:002010-05-19T12:07:09.311-04:00Carl you have made some great calls since Mar 09, ...Carl you have made some great calls since Mar 09, but also some horrendous ones (as does everyone at times). But your refusal to become bearish and always be bullish is suicidal. How on earth could you have remained bullish when the markets collapsed in 08? Did you not understand what was happening?<br /><br />I acknowledge that it is very difficult if you hold a particular stance which you have had a fair degree of success over 12 months to suddenly switch and you give the markets the benefit of the doubt - I have that same problem, but to me once I saw what the monthly charts were saying it became clear that this rally was over and where it stalled also confirmed that view.<br /><br />In Dec 07 I told anyyone who would listen to me that the markets were going to halve in 08 and they more or less did.<br /><br />Now I believe the S&P is going to 450 and the Dow to 4700. The bull run which actually was a monster rally is, I believe over. The S&P came a few pips short of breaking its downtrend from March 09 and then collapsed.<br /><br />Your failure to understand what is happening on a global level - the same reason why markets collapsed initially - is a major flaw it seems in your analysis. Normally, I don't pay too much attention to news and trade technicals, but this will be 2008 on steroids. This time we are talking about governments/ countries going bankrupt not just banks!!! Everything is interlinked. Eg even countries that may on the face of it be relatively stable, will hold large portions of other countries debts that are at risk and hence they become at risk. You will see speculators target currency after currency and at the moment they are going to break the Euro and then down goes Europe. Then it will be the pound and then the dollar.<br /><br />China will start dumping its massive holdings of US debt - you then have the nightmare scenario.<br /><br />As I always said to people I advise - you cannot solve a problem created by debt by creating even more debt - at some point the buck has to stop and that is what I believe we are now seeing. Look for 450 on the S&P by end of the year if not in a few months. This sell off will be severe.MaverickUKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00991573088140345390noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-75329775734567234862010-05-19T12:07:09.312-04:002010-05-19T12:07:09.312-04:00marketmaker, there is only Kool-aid that is served...marketmaker, there is only Kool-aid that is served in casinos. It is also the most favorite drink of both perma-bulls and perma-bears.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-42439251134691462992010-05-19T11:48:18.996-04:002010-05-19T11:48:18.996-04:00You guys need to stop drinking the cool aid. Marke...You guys need to stop drinking the cool aid. Markets should have never of been up here in the first place. With the non stop propping and overnight pumping, there is a massive imbalance of liquidity under the markets. <br /><br />Uncle Ben created this and now there is no way to stop iit. <br />Wait to buy the spx at or near the 06-20-10 time frame and look for the it to be trading sub 1000..960ish is a wolfewave target.. <br /><br />Good luck and if you are holding for 1200..you may be holding for a long time..Mid summer, if you are lucky. The fact that the es bounce 60 points off the lows..well that just ads to the imbalnace of liquidity..because if you think that was real buying..again, the cool aid stand is over theremarketmakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09653970991574740215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-12163003266260545902010-05-19T11:36:38.013-04:002010-05-19T11:36:38.013-04:00In 2008, when the Dow plunged from 14K to 10K, it ...In 2008, when the Dow plunged from 14K to 10K, it was 'contrarian' to buy too right?EricHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02832130458145600140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-35270805780893178162010-05-19T11:32:23.221-04:002010-05-19T11:32:23.221-04:00Carl you have been right for more than an year lik...Carl you have been right for more than an year like extrader says. <br /><br />Can you take also into consideration a change in trend. You were against the market in 2008 but still been profitable. <br /><br />Just elaborate for us a bearish scenario. Or a price level that would change the trend in your view. <br /><br />Excellent work during this hard years.DMA Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00884045929885642935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-86803739123490563652010-05-19T11:26:50.943-04:002010-05-19T11:26:50.943-04:00To say the least, Contrarian trading today tells u...To say the least, Contrarian trading today tells us to go long for sure.dcatlowpjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568127255552643343noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-72141078031387175132010-05-19T11:22:48.090-04:002010-05-19T11:22:48.090-04:00Extreme reluctance? It's been there for more t...Extreme reluctance? It's been there for more time than my Grandpa sitting on the throne.Me XManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13867311283909743128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-7531578122262414002010-05-19T11:00:10.015-04:002010-05-19T11:00:10.015-04:00ES is showing an extreme reluctance to stay under ...ES is showing an extreme reluctance to stay under 1110. Gap from May 10 has also been filled.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07189137775751588200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-29053564135353158642010-05-19T10:12:58.663-04:002010-05-19T10:12:58.663-04:00carl,If I could get you post your thoughts in the ...carl,If I could get you post your thoughts in the form of a contra-contrarian swing trading it would be very valuable.<br /><br />Having said that during the close today 3;37 pm will be a very critical time frame that if up should support your bullish call to 1200. <br /><br />There is something to your box ideas which is kind of like quantum physics. I continue to check your very unique trading style.<br /><br />Thanks, Chadravenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16780882370735731615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-60976270593381524352010-05-19T10:01:22.479-04:002010-05-19T10:01:22.479-04:00The market was about to make the predicted move up...The market was about to make the predicted move up yesterday when <br />Germany announced naked short sale ban. This ban will cut CDS prices and liquidity and mandate cash to back positions. short sellers and CDS holders rushed to sell stocks to covered naked short sale positions and underfunded positions. This may take the market lower short term but longer term (withing a few weeks) the market will make the move up.tempohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09966485254241775857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-23566480269125433352010-05-19T09:44:23.115-04:002010-05-19T09:44:23.115-04:00i think today is an important day...lots of bad ne...i think today is an important day...lots of bad news in the markets, if they tank then a retest of the recent lows is assured and likely we will break below them. If we see buyers today then I think this A-B-C correction will be sideways (C leg) but last a bit longer. Hard to imagine that after a yr of pretty much straight up that we would resume a bullish trend without a more significant period of correction (time).curthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09514551447305140010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-51847859662819307852010-05-19T09:04:44.627-04:002010-05-19T09:04:44.627-04:00I think you have been wrong this past week and hav...I think you have been wrong this past week and have not realized that the Bull Market is done for now! You have made some great calls for the past 18months or so, but I think your too bias towards the Bulls!<br /><br />exextraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03032122744040672879noreply@blogger.com