tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post9084967708681604335..comments2023-11-10T05:07:19.026-05:00Comments on Carl Futia: the Fed, the ECB, and youCarl Futiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01624989905417650273noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-32548296259053879432011-09-25T15:28:38.173-04:002011-09-25T15:28:38.173-04:00Hi Carl
In my article entitled "Stupid Politi...Hi Carl<br />In my article entitled "Stupid Politicians" dated 15th August 2011, which is published on my blog <a href="http://www.theSarayiahpost.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.theSarayiahpost.com</a>, I comment that there is absolutely no solution to this crisis. I've been saying this for a while, but finally the markets have caught up with reality.<br /><br />The solution, in my opinion, was to never print money to solve a problem that was created by debt in the first place and to let the banks fail. All the governments did was focus on the short term and transfer the debt at the micro level to the macro (ie sovereign) level and now those sovereigns are collapsing in what will be a domino effect of unprecedented disaster. WW3 but on an economic scale most likely leading to a depression lasting for decades.<br /><br />If history repeats itself we will most likely have a strong equity market rally until mid/ end of October before complete collapse in equity, commodity and bond markets etc across the world.<br /><br />The direct link to this article is:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.thesarayiahpost.com/MyPosts/2011/08/stupid-politicians.html" rel="nofollow">Stupid Politicans</a><br /><br />Isaac SarayiahMaverickUKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00991573088140345390noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-78530007590921392682011-09-24T12:09:17.389-04:002011-09-24T12:09:17.389-04:00Carl, there is an interesting lack of correlation ...Carl, there is an interesting lack of correlation between liquidity, EU specifically, and liquidity/borrowing needs here in the USA. We are in economic contraction; no one is hiring (evidence); demand is flat to depressed; Unemployment figures are flat to declining (repeat); Companies are shutting plants (personally I know of at least 10 plant closures in the last 60 days alone); Companies such as HP are struggling (evidence, management shake-ups); and in effect, the demand for CREDIT (Loan demand, dollar-denominated) is down dramatically. The Fed manipulations, seemingly aimed at providing cheap interest rates (aimed at borrowing?) is a lie. Could you comment on the liquidity you mention and credit demand. I think that these are very correct points for discussion and I am once again a fan of yours. This was your best post in over a year.dcatlowpjhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03568127255552643343noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-87027067597605865772011-09-23T15:12:25.398-04:002011-09-23T15:12:25.398-04:00One of the most important things the Fed does, by ...One of the most important things the Fed does, by monetizing the debt, is win the currency war for the U.S. Prior to the this leg up in the dollar, manufacturing was actually returning to the United States. After many years, it was simply cheaper to build cars and trucks here, than to build them in China and ship them here. What the Fed bashers don't realize is that they (and the politicians spouting their populist anger) may have stopped this nascent recovery in manufacturing in its tracks.Winhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04040943114916173740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-45245608577851036312011-09-23T02:09:16.890-04:002011-09-23T02:09:16.890-04:00Unfortunately, power to the people means power to ...Unfortunately, power to the people means power to the mediocre, these days. <br /><br />There are two kinds of mediocre people: the ones that know they are like that and go and sit silently in the corner, and the ones that are knowledgeable and thus think they are "wise" (any allusion to bull-bear-wise from above is unintended but, still, valid). This last kind is the most dangerous.<br /><br />Today, this "wise" mediocrity is the source of our political leaders and their support also. They are running to meet the goals of this moody cohort every two years. What a circus! <br /><br />And, also, what a byzantine tragedy! While we are busy watching the circus, we are forgetting the gate to our fortress open.Adrnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11169308544979086413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-64920163948670748152011-09-22T21:57:07.441-04:002011-09-22T21:57:07.441-04:00Hi Carl,
If more dollar liquidity is the solution ...Hi Carl,<br />If more dollar liquidity is the solution to restoring economic growth, why did QEII fail to revive the U.S. economy? What seems to have happened is that after QEII began, commodity prices spiked, which is largely blamed for the major slowdown in GDP growth this year.Graph1159https://www.blogger.com/profile/03033052376445519929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-9941001981697917332011-09-22T18:38:04.000-04:002011-09-22T18:38:04.000-04:00Carl, just curious, how come you have drastically ...Carl, just curious, how come you have drastically lowered your original target for ES (compared to a few months ago) but you still have the same bullish target for Apple? Do you expect Apple to defy the market decline and continue to rise? Thanks.Spudthorpehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14053052022741919186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-9597351964158809252011-09-22T17:19:29.828-04:002011-09-22T17:19:29.828-04:00For those that have failed to realize this, "...For those that have failed to realize this, "Operation Twist" does NOT EXPAND the FED's balance sheet. It is a "steralized" operation. <br /><br />Given that the Fed acknowledged "significant downside risk to the economy" in their comments yesterday... but yet chose NOT TO EXPAND their balance sheet, the market turned up their nose and headed South.<br /><br />It's as simple as that.<br /><br />PS. I've never been a Fed Basher.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-85822442649043477592011-09-22T16:59:18.421-04:002011-09-22T16:59:18.421-04:00I think the FED action was worst, because it cause...I think the FED action was worst, because it caused an overpricing of commodity, like oil copper, which slown down the recovery.<br /><br />For a nice recovery we need cheap comodities... Expensive commodities was just a way for speculators to make money.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00162981907446503799noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-77225525433810173112011-09-22T16:57:24.962-04:002011-09-22T16:57:24.962-04:00We've lived in decades of flowing virtual USD ...We've lived in decades of flowing virtual USD (debt), we've got to learn leaving without for a while...<br /><br />That's long and painfull.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00162981907446503799noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-22830326642267587802011-09-22T16:38:01.922-04:002011-09-22T16:38:01.922-04:00A central bank that's buying most of that nati...A central bank that's buying most of that nation's newly issued sovereign debt is not a properly functioning central bank. Again, back to the eating its younng analogy.BullandBearWisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10060549881104128218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-85852455616270844782011-09-22T16:03:39.312-04:002011-09-22T16:03:39.312-04:00My dear Bull:
The Fed does NOT create debt for fu...My dear Bull:<br /><br />The Fed does NOT create debt for future generations to repay. Only the US Treasury dept. can do that.Carl Futiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01624989905417650273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-28648009874596920742011-09-22T15:53:52.469-04:002011-09-22T15:53:52.469-04:00Thank you for sharing your interpretive insights, ...Thank you for sharing your interpretive insights, Carl.George Rahalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02498325227481537656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-5822036091032088942011-09-22T15:43:46.294-04:002011-09-22T15:43:46.294-04:00carl, these people bashing the fed and other centr...carl, these people bashing the fed and other central banks don't understand what it is to expand a balance sheet. they think by they are simply printing money. THEY ARE NOT!!!! <br /><br />only the treasury could actually monetize the currencyTim-https://www.blogger.com/profile/02034978359676679366noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-21854215390762197262011-09-22T15:30:03.809-04:002011-09-22T15:30:03.809-04:00In other words, eat your young.In other words, eat your young.BullandBearWisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10060549881104128218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-52187164292652342392011-09-22T15:08:50.015-04:002011-09-22T15:08:50.015-04:00"The goal of the Fed and of the European Cent..."The goal of the Fed and of the European Central Bank (ECB) should be to satisfy the demand for dollar liquidity by permanently expanding their balances sheets via the purchase of long maturity assets."Carl Futiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01624989905417650273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-81264968102079306162011-09-22T14:56:51.751-04:002011-09-22T14:56:51.751-04:00Carl
How would you suggest the Fed create dollar...Carl <br /><br />How would you suggest the Fed create dollar liquidity?<br /><br />ThanksHarryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09555899079597510142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-51310558651592675402011-09-22T14:28:11.446-04:002011-09-22T14:28:11.446-04:00"The Fed has so far failed to meet the increa..."The Fed has so far failed to meet the increased demand for dollars..."<br /><br />What fed policies would address meeting the increased demand for USD?bull-bearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09126617887823378078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-82582608821584383732011-09-22T14:22:44.970-04:002011-09-22T14:22:44.970-04:00Carl - what policies might the Fed implement in or...Carl - what policies might the Fed implement in order "to meet the increased demand for dollars"?bull-bearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09126617887823378078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-56733327727861759292011-09-22T14:07:23.409-04:002011-09-22T14:07:23.409-04:00The Fed created this problem. They can't fix i...The Fed created this problem. They can't fix it. The problem should have been addressed long ago, but wasn't.FHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15407290724207435238noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-21269502569333281312011-09-22T13:33:49.033-04:002011-09-22T13:33:49.033-04:00simply brilliant! Hat off to ypu Dr. Futia.simply brilliant! Hat off to ypu Dr. Futia.Edwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08996831560825424860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-45736519091832748812011-09-22T13:13:14.055-04:002011-09-22T13:13:14.055-04:00Nice wrap-up of Street-like thinking. The problem ...Nice wrap-up of Street-like thinking. The problem is the populace does not want any more debt creation. They will win this battle. Power to the people!BullandBearWisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10060549881104128218noreply@blogger.com