Carl Futia

Guesstimates on January 30, 2012

2012-01-30T08:58:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1296-1308. A drop of 40-50 points is underway. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The rally from 1.2623 should continue to 1.3540 before the market turns down once more. Meantime support is at 1.2940.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – April Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 27, 2012

2012-01-27T09:05:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 12990-1314. A drop of 40-50 points is underway. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The rally from 1.2623 should continue to 1.3540 before the market turns down once more. Meantime support is at 1.2940. The Fed announcement has made the market reassess its estimate of likely interest rate differentials between the EU and the US . It now expects EU rates to be relatively higher than it previously thought.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 26, 2012

2012-01-26T09:00:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1320-1333. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.2620 has produced a big rally. It should continue to 1.3540 before the market turns down once more. A move to 1.2400 will then be in the cards. The Fed announcement yesterday has made the market reassess its estimate of likely interest rate differentials between the EU and the US . It now expects EU rates to be relatively higher than it previously thought.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Attention Traders

2012-01-25T15:30:00.000-05:00

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So far I have made more than 1500 posts and answered more than 4500 questions about my methods and ideas. Every day I explain exactly how I make the range estimate for that day and where I think the ES is going over several different time frames and - most importantly - why and how I draw my conclusions.

Here is what other traders, both amateur and professional, say about CarlFutiaRealTime

Fed Failure

2012-01-25T14:40:00.003-05:00

Today at 12:30 pm the Fed announced that it expected short term interest rates to stay near zero for the next two years.

Very low short term interest rates are always associated with weak economic activity. So the Fed is telling us that it expects to fail. It has announced that it believes all of its efforts during the past two years to stimulate the economy will come to naught.

Of course the Fed may be wrong about this. Indeed, its economic forecasting record is no better than anyone else's despite the enormous resources it devotes to such activity. But the sad thing is that the US central bank seems content to fail. I don't get it.

Headed higher

2012-01-25T11:25:00.004-05:00

Here is a daily bar chart showing trading in the March '12 e-minis going back to the October 4, 2011 low. I still think the market is headed higher. A rally from the November 25 low which matches the size of the initial 221 point rally off of the October low would carry the ES to 1370 or so, just about the level of the May 2011 top (blue dash rectangles).

The 5, 10, and 20 day advancing issues oscillators on my chart page are overbought and showing bearish divergences. At the same time the 5 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio (also on my chart page) is at its lowest level in more than 6 months. Moreover, the AAII sentiment survey shows more bullish sentiment than at any time during the past year. This indicator configuration suggests that a break bigger than any seen since the 71 point break in December is imminent.

A repetition of that last 71 point drop would bring the ES down to 1250 or so (purple dash rectangles). That level is also at the confluence of the lower trend lines of the red and green dash trend channels I have drawn on the chart. I doubt that any such reaction will last more than two weeks or so and expect the market to quickly recover and head into the target zone outlined by the green oval.

Guesstimates on January 25, 2012

2012-01-25T08:28:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1298-1310. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3030 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 24, 2012

2012-01-24T09:07:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1295-1308. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 23, 2012

2012-01-23T08:58:00.000-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1302-1314. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 20, 2012

2012-01-20T08:50:00.000-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1299-1312. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Lindsay update

2012-01-19T10:43:00.008-05:00

I last commented on my Lindsay analysis of the stock market nearly 6 months ago, in early August 2011. At the time it looked like the May 2, 2011 top was point 23 of a major domed house formation which had been evolving since the start of 2010. The normal expectation of the drop following point 23 is that it would take the market below point 10. In that major formation point 10 was the July 2010 low which in the Dow was at 9,614.

Now take a look at the daily chart of the Dow above this post. It goes back to the start of 2011. Point 23 of the major domed house was the May 2 top at 12,876. The drop to the October 4, 2011 low ended at 10,404, a level substantially above the normal expectation for a major 3 peaks and a domed house formation. So the question is whether or not that big formation has been completed with the subnormal drop into October 2011 low.

I think the odds now favor the view that the October 2011 low was in fact point 26 of the major formation and that point 27 lies just ahead of us (see the 3 peaks, domed house schematic at the top of this post). There have been occasions in the past where point 27 has been higher than point 23 and that is what I think will happen now. If this inference is correct then the the current rally in the Dow will carry the average to 13,000 or somewhat higher but then will be followed by a drop to or below 9,600.I have three reasons for this conclusion.

The first revolves around Lindsay's 12 year time period from major highs to major lows. There was a bull market top in the Dow in February of 2000. The 12 year period, which averages about 12 years and 8 months, predicts a significant low in the Dow around October of 2012, twelve years and eight months after the 2000 bull market top.

Secondly, the 2004 low point which was associated with substantial pessimism about the economy and stock prices, occurred in August of that year. Lindsay often observed that important lows are often echoed by important lows 8 year later. This points to August 2012 as a possible low point.

Finally, I think that the Dow has traced out a pretty clearly defined minor three peaks and a domed house formation beginning with the February 2011 top. I have labeled the key turning points on the daily Dow chart above. The three peaks, points 3, 5, and 7, spanned a 5 month period, not the 6-10 month period which is typically found in major formations. Still, 5 months is not far short of this 6-10 month interval and is long enough to make be think this is an important example of a three peaks and domed house.

I think point 10 of this formation occurred at the October 2011 low. As far as I can tell there are no obvious points 12 or 14, perhaps because this is not a fully developed major formation. But the five reversals, points 15-20, appear pretty clearly on this chart. The market is now on its way up from point 20 which was the December 18 low.

The next phase should be the development of points 21-25 which usually looks like a somewhat misshapen head and shoulder top. Point 23 should be above the highest of the three peaks which was point 5 at 12,876 in the Dow.

The timing of point 23 is more difficult to determine. Normally short bear market declines last about 8 months or a little less. If the 12 year period gives us a low in October 2012, then the preceding top should be in February, i.e within the next six weeks.

But I think the key thing to watch for is the development of points 21-25, the dome of the domed house. As I said, this should resemble a head and shoulders formation with point 23 above 12,876 in the Dow. The break below the neckline of such a formation would be the start of a drop to 9,600 or so.

Guesstimates on January 19, 2012

2012-01-19T09:07:00.000-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1299-1312. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 18, 2012

2012-01-18T08:58:00.000-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1290-1303. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3030 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

March Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 17, 2012

2012-01-17T09:07:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1291-1308. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 13, 2012

2012-01-13T09:07:00.003-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1275-1287. It looks like the market is about to break at least 40-50 points . The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 12, 2012

2012-01-12T09:12:00.002-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1287-97. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

update

2012-01-11T11:54:00.005-05:00

Here is a daily bar chart showing the past five months price action in the March '12 e-mini futures.

Looking at this chart is it is obvious that the current trend is upward and has been since the October 4 low at 1062. The market is trying to breakout above its early December and late October high points (red dash lines).

The fact that volume has been so low during this breakout attempt and that the five and ten day advancing issues oscillators on my chart page are showing minor bearish divergences suggest that this first attempt will fail. But whatever reaction materializes should end above the December 18 low at 1195.50. The drop into that low was about 70 points and a similar size drop from yesterday's 1292 high would bring the ES down to 1222 (purple dash rectangles). The 1222 level is also right on top of the bottom trendline of the bullish trend channel I have drawn.

Whether the current breakout attempt fails or succeeds I think that the ES will move substantially higher during the next few months. The October rally was 221 points and a similar size rally from the November 25 low at 1142 would put the ES at 1363 (blue dash rectangles).

I still see a lot of pessimistic assessments of US and European economic performance for the coming year. But I think the summer 2011 drop discounted the worst that is likely to happen. So I think that the markets, both here and in Europe, are in the process of climbing the "wall of worry" which under-girds all big bull market swings.

Guesstimates on January 11, 2012

2012-01-11T09:01:00.003-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1274-85. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 10, 2012

2012-01-10T08:57:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1282-1294. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 9, 2012

2012-01-09T08:57:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1274-1286. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 6, 2012

2012-01-06T09:02:00.000-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1275-1288. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro broke below 1.2820 support. Next support is at 1.2620 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 5, 2012

2012-01-05T09:02:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1267-80. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on January 4, 2012

2012-01-04T08:56:00.000-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1260-71. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

2012 daily guesstimates

2012-01-03T09:05:00.018-05:00

JANUARY

January 30 - 8:45 amET

January 27 - 8:45 am ET
January 26 - 8:45 am ET
January 25 - 8:45 am ET
January 24 - 8:45 am ET
January 23 - 8:45 am ET

January 20 - 8:45 am ET
January 19 - 8:45 am ET
January 18 - 8:45 am ET
January 17 - 8:45 am ET

January 13 - 8:45 am ET
January 12 - 8:45 am ET
January 11 - 8:45 am ET
January 10 - 8:45 am ET
January 9 - 8:45 am ET

January 6 - 8:45 am ET
January 5 - 8:45 am ET
January 4 - 8:45 am ET
January 3 - 8:45 am ET

Guesstimates on January 3, 2012

2012-01-03T09:04:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1270-1285. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 30, 2011

2011-12-30T09:05:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1256-1268. I now looks like the drop from 1264 ended at 1243 and that the ES is on its way to 1284. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 29, 2011

2011-12-29T09:00:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1236-1254. The drop from yesterday's 1264 high should carry the ES down at least to 1236 and more probably to 1212. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

what's going on

2011-12-28T10:20:00.006-05:00

Here are four daily bar charts which together paint a clear picture of the economic forces at work in the markets over the past few weeks and for the coming few months.

The European Central Bank has decided to bolster the liquidity of the EU banking system by buying sovereign bonds from private banks for euros and then putting them on the ECB's own balance sheet. This policy should send the euro-currency down against the dollar, and indeed that is what we see in the euro-currency daily chart (second from top).

This ECB policy is designed to avert a banking crisis which would tank the entire EU economy. European stock markets right now think the ECB will attain this policy goal as you can see from the top chart of the French CAC stock market index - while the Euro has tanked the CAC has stabilized and even shows a series of higher lows which bodes well for the immediate future.

The US stock market has been worrying about fallout from Europe putting pressure on US banks and even threatening another banking crisis in the US. But as you can see in the bottom chart of the S&P bank stock index, US bank stocks are actually outperforming the S&P itself - this index is above not only its 200 day moving average (red line) but also above its October 27 high (green dash line). The market seems to think that better times are ahead for US banks.

Finally note the second chart up from the bottom which shows the performance of the Philadelphia stock exchange housing stock index. Like the S&P bank stock index it is trading above its October 27 top as well as above its 200 day moving average. This suggests that a recovery in residential housing construction is underway in the US, a positive sign for the US economy.

Taken together these four charts all suggest that the thick blanket of gloom which currently envelopes the US stock market is about to lift. Better times and higher prices lie ahead.

Guesstimates on December 28, 2011

2011-12-28T08:52:00.000-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1260-1271. A rally from 1195, the December 19 low, which matches the size of the rally from November 25 to December 8 would put the e-minis at 1319. The longer term trend is also upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 27, 2011

2011-12-27T08:52:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1252-1262. A rally from 1195, the December 19 low, which matches the size of the rally from November 25 to December 8 would put the e-minis at 1319. The longer term trend is also upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 23, 2011

2011-12-23T08:57:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1250-1260. A rally from 1195, the December 19 low, which matches the size of the rally from November 25 to December 8 would put the e-minis at 1319. The longer term trend is also upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 22, 2011

2011-12-22T08:58:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1238-1254. i think that Monday's 1195.50 low ended the drop from 1266. A rally from 1195 which matches the size of the rally from November 25 to December 8 would put the e-minis at 1319. The longer term trend is also upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 21, 2011

2011-12-21T09:06:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1220-1236. Bullish divergences visible in the advancing issues oscillators you can find on my chart page are a strong hint that the drop from 1266 ended Monday at 1195.50 and yesterday's close above 1220 was added evidence for this. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 20, 2011

2011-12-20T09:11:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1209-1227. Bullish divergences visible in the advancing issues oscillators you can find on my chart page are a strong hint that the drop from 1266 ended yesterday and a close today above 1220 would be even more convincing evidence of this. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 19, 2011

2011-12-19T09:00:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1214-1231. The drop from 1266 will probably end near 1175, although a close today above 1225 would mean that it instead ended at the 1198 low point. In either case the bigger trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

European crisis update

2011-12-16T15:19:00.002-05:00

For those of you who are following the EU debt crisis here is a link which suggests things are starting to turn around in the short run, pretty much as I suggested they would in this last post.

Take a look at this too.

Guesstimates on December 16, 2011

2011-12-16T09:06:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1215-1230. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370. The drop from 1266 will probably end near 1175, although a close today above 1223 would mean that it instead ended at the 1198 low point yesterday.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820. Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 .

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

update

2011-12-15T10:57:00.002-05:00

Here is a daily bar chart of the March '12 e-minis.

I think the October 4 low at 1062 and the November 25 low at 1142 are first two lows in a sequence of higher lows. The ES is in the process of dropping to its third higher low which I expect to develop around 1175 at the lower line of the bullish trend channel I have drawn. There is an outside chance that the overnight low last night at 1198 is this third higher low but I doubt it.

In any case the most obvious upside target now stands at the confluence of the upper channel line and the level at which the rally from 1142 will match the size of the rally from 1062 (blue dash rectangles). That is also the level of the May 2011 top at 1373 (green oval).

I think I am on safe ground when I assert that investor sentiment is quite negative. The unrelenting European debt crisis is all people are thinking about and all the markets are focusing upon. Of course, things can always get much worse as we learned in 2008. However, I think that was a very unusual situation and one not likely to be repeated.

What interests me right now is the fact that the ES is well above its October low even as doomsayers are predicting the end of the Euro-currency and a worldwide banking crisis. Moreover, even as the US and European markets are holding well above their September-October lows the Euro-currency itself is below its corresponding low made on October 4. I have a strong suspicion that this means that speculators are expecting the ECB (European Central Bank) to provide ample liquidity to the banking system through the "back door" even as it stands at the front door and denies that it will do any quantitative easing. If it does provide such "back door" liquidity the Euro will continue its decline but European stock markets should recover. This would be a bullish development for the US stock market.

Guesstimates on December 15, 2011

2011-12-15T09:00:00.000-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1212-1230. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820. .

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 14, 2011

2011-12-14T09:25:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1206-1227. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820. .

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is now at 1610.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 13, 2011

2011-12-13T08:55:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1231-1249. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 12, 2011

2011-12-12T08:58:00.001-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1234-1252. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

what hasn't happened

2011-12-09T12:57:00.004-05:00

There seems to be an emerging consensus that yesterday's EU summit meeting was a partial failure and a partial success - sort of like all the other EU initiatives taken to control a potential banking crisis.

There is an extraordinary conviction among investors and the this half -success, half-failure result was too little and too late, that an Euro zone break up is inevitable and will have devastating, world-wide economic consequences. At least that is what I am reading in the print media and getting from on-line sources.

Here are a few headlines I found within minutes of searching on line for reactions to the summit. They are quite representative.

"Europe's blithering idiots and their flim-flam treaty" - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph (UK)

"Europe's Disastrous Summit" - Felix Salmon, Reuters US

"Eurozone banking system on verge of collapse" - Harry Wison, The Telegraph (UK)

I think I am on safe ground in asserting that a very bearish investment crowd has developed around this theme during the past few months.

The odd thing is that the European stock markets as well as the US market have rallied today - not by a huge amount - but quite substantially. I also note that the Euro-currency has been trading quietly for the past two weeks in a narrow range a little above its early October lows.

This surprises me, and I think it means that the widely accepted view that a European crash is imminent is wide of the mark. I think the Euro will rally against the dollar from here and that European and US stock prices will advance well above their late October highs.

Guesstimates on December 9, 2011

2011-12-09T09:20:00.000-05:00

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1223-1243. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 8, 2011

2011-12-08T09:19:00.000-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1242-1259. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 7, 2011

2011-12-07T09:16:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1243-1257. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 6, 2011

2011-12-06T09:05:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1253-1270. The trend is upward and a rally from 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 5, 2011

2011-12-05T09:07:00.000-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1247-1265. The trend is upward and a rally from 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on December 2, 2011

2011-12-02T09:01:00.000-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1247-1263. The trend is upward and a rally from last week's low which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close Friday above 1.3568, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

headed higher

2011-12-01T11:29:00.003-05:00

Here is a daily bar chart of the December e-minis going back to early July. I now think the market's low at 1147.50 last week was the first higher low in an extended up trend. If the move up from that level matches the size of the October rally it will carry the ES to 1370 (blue dotted rectangles). The upper line of the dash green trend channel as well as the purple dotted trend line will be in that neighborhood late this month. So the target zone for the move is 1370 plus or minus 10 points (green oval).

The last 6 months or so have been the strangest period I've seen in the markets over the past 40 years. The market is concerned about only one thing - the possibility of a banking panic in Europe. Every piece of news, every policy action (or lack of same) by the central banks involved has generated a big swing in one direction or another which is quickly reversed by a swing in the opposite direction.

This up swing may turn out to be just one more page in this chapter of aimless volatility. But I am betting that it is not. Instead I think the market will interpret yesterday's central bank actions as a commitment to rescue the European banking system no matter what else happens. If I am right about his then the market is now headed well above the 1400 level.

Guesstimates on December 1, 2011

2011-12-01T09:11:00.000-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1237-1257. The market rallied well above 1208-1218 resistance on news of central bank efforts to ease credit conditions. I am moving to the bullish side of the market in anticipation of a close tomorrow above last week's high at 1209. A rally from last week's low which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 30, 2011

2011-11-30T09:11:00.000-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1218-1243. The market rallied well above 1208-1218 resistance on news of central bank efforts to ease credit conditions. If the ES closes above 1209 on Friday I will have to move back to the bullish side of the market.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: 1.3050 is now the downside target. After a rally from that level the Euro will probably continue downward to 1.2200.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 29, 2011

2011-11-29T09:05:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1191-1206. There is strong resistance above the market in the 1208-1218 zone. The weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: 1.3050 is now the downside target. After a rally from that level the Euro will probably continue downward to 1.2200.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 28, 2011

2011-11-28T09:08:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1170-1192. The weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: 1.3050 is now the downside target. After a rally from that level the Euro will probably continue downward to 1.2200.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 25, 2011

2011-11-25T09:14:00.000-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1148-1160. The weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: 1.3050 is now the downside target. After a rally from that level the Euro will probably continue downward to 1.2200.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 23, 2011

2011-11-23T09:15:00.000-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1164-1181. It is very likely that the ES will close below 1208 Friday. This means that the weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also.

QQQ: Now headed for 50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support at 1.3500 has been broken. 1.3200 is now the downside target.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 22, 2011

2011-11-22T09:08:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1172-1190. I still think there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months. However, for this view to remain viable the market would have to close this Friday above 1208. Failing this 1130 would become the downside target.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 21, 2011

2011-11-21T09:14:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1190-1212. I still think there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months. However, for this view to remain viable the market would have to close this Friday above 1208. Failing this 1130 would become the downside target.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

still headed higher

2011-11-18T11:54:00.004-05:00

Here is a 10 point box, one box reversal point and figure chart of the cash S&P 500. The thing that stands out most on this chart is that the recent three week trading range between 1210 and 1290 stands almost completely above the longer and wider August-October trading range. I interpret this to mean that the market is accepting prices at or above the breakout level as fair value. This in turn says that the move to 1290 in late October was a genuine breakout and should be followed by upside continuation once the current consolidation phase is complete.

The sovereign debt fiasco in Europe has been blowing the market hither and yon for four months now. Despite an avalanche of bad news and dire predictions the S&P is still trading almost exactly in the middle of its 2011 range. This I think is bullish behavior in the face of bad news. Of course, the news can always get worse as we discovered in 2008, but generally I find that it is unwise to fight the market's last war.

Note that the August-October trading range ended with a shakeout which too the S&P about 10 points below the low of the trading range and this shakeout was followed by a fast rally. I think something similar is going to happen now.

The only thing which would cause be to be wary and possibly abandon my bullish prognosis would be a close today (Friday) below 1208.50, the November 1 low. Such a close would be below the lows of the preceding two weeks and suggest at least a further drop to 1140 or so.

Guesstimates on November 18, 2011

2011-11-18T09:02:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1216-36. I think there is a good chance that yesterday's 1206.50 low will hold and that the market is on its way above 1300. The only thing that would cast doubt on my bullish scenario would be a close today below 1208.50. There has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 17, 2011

2011-11-17T09:06:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1203-1233. I think the market will take a peek below its November 1 low at 1208.50 and then begin a move to 1300 and higher. There has already been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 16, 2011

2011-11-16T09:15:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1225-50. I now think that the market will hold above last week's low at 1218 and soon will begin a move above the 1300 level, thus resolving the trading range of the past two weeks with an upside breakout. There has already been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 15, 2011

2011-11-15T09:07:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1230-50. I now think that the market will hold above last week's low at 1218 and soon will begin a move above the 1300 level, thus resolving the trading range of the past two weeks with an upside breakout. There has already been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 14, 2011

2011-11-14T09:02:00.002-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1250-1270. I now think that the market will hold above last week's low at 1218 and soon will begin a move above the 1300 level, thus resolving the trading range of the past two weeks with an upside breakout. There has already been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 11, 2011

2011-11-11T09:02:00.000-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1236-1253. The down swing from the 1275 high is likely to end near 1195. I think that there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. The next swing up will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

be content with what is possible

2011-11-10T13:26:00.009-05:00

This post is about the frustrations that market fluctuations generate for a trader and how to deal with them. My message is a simple one: be content with what is possible.

I have been in this business full time for nearly 30 years now. I have known many traders. The majority of them were only in the business a relatively brief time. Most of these left because they lost money but some left because, even thought they were making money trading, they couldn't stand the constant frustration traders experience.

Markets move up and down, sometimes quite violently. People tend to evaluate their trading performance not simply in terms of profit and loss but also in terms of how much money they could have made had they been able to catch a substantial part of most of the market's up and down swings. In fact, I have known profitable traders who were constantly frustrated and unhappy because they felt that they had left so much money on the table.

Put simply, this is crazy behavior. What basis do you have for thinking you can catch a substantial part of the market's many swings? Sure, in hindsight everything is obvious and we can see how we might have become gazillionaires.

But we cannot trade the past. We can only make profits betting on the future. And people who bet on future price fluctuations must necessarily rely on very, very cloudy crystal balls. So as a practical matter you should count yourself fortunate indeed if you consistently capture a small part of any given market swing.

What does this mean for you? It means that you should be focused on one thing and one thing only when evaluating your trading record. Have you been making consistent profits or not? Forget about how much you might have made - those sort of calculations are not in the realm of what's possible. What's possible is steady, month-by-month, quarter-by quarter profitability. Some people can achieve higher rates of return on their capital than others, but so what? Don't worry about what other people do. Focus only on what you can do based on your market knowledge and trading skills.

I had a friend who was a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and later a member of the Singapore exchange. He had a profit goal he aimed for each year. When he reached it he stopped trading for the rest of the year. It didn't matter whether it took him two months or six months or eleven months to reach his goal. When he reached it he stopped.

For him trading was just a way to make a good living, not a test of his value as a person or an affirmation that he was smarter than everyone else. This is an example of sane behavior in a business where various forms of insanity are the rule, not the exception.

Guesstimates on November 10, 2011

2011-11-10T08:58:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1219-1245. The down swing from the 1275 high is likely to end near 1195. I think that there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes below 1208 this coming Friday I will reassess this view but failing that I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 9, 2011

2011-11-09T08:57:00.000-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1225-50. I think that there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes below 1208 this coming Friday I will reassess this view but failing this I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 8, 2011

2011-11-08T09:03:00.001-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1259-79. I still think that there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes below 1208 this coming Friday I will reassess this view but failing this I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: Resistance above the market at 94 has been taken out. I think this means that a more extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude back to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 7, 2011

2011-11-07T09:17:00.000-05:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1230-50. I still think that there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes below 1208 this coming Friday I will reassess this view but failing this I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 4, 2011

2011-11-04T09:02:00.000-04:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1243-1263. I still think that last week's up move was a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes today below 1216 I will reassess this view but failing this I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

headed higher after holding support

2011-11-03T09:36:00.003-04:00

Here is a daily chart of the December e-minis going back to late June. Last week I think the market staged a genuine upside breakout from its August-October trading range. The breakout levels are depicted by green dash lines on the chart. You can see that Tuesday's break dropped the ES right into that support zone but no further.

This looks like a successful test of the breakout level. If so the next leg up should eventually equal the size of the first leg which was 221 points (blue dash rectangles). This gives an upside target of 1429 (blue arrow).

Looking back at the past three months I think the most striking fact is that the market only went sideways from August to October despite repeated bouts of bad news about the evolving European debt crisis. This is bullish behavior, at least in retrospect. It looks like the market is telling us that the Europeans will successfully "muddle through" the current crisis without crashing the EU monetary and banking system, at least not this time around.

Guesstimates on November 3, 2011

2011-11-03T09:11:00.000-04:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1233-1253. I still think that last week's up move was a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes this Friday below 1216 I will reassess this view but failing this I think the current swing will put the ES above 1300.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 2, 2011

2011-11-02T09:15:00.001-04:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1223-1243. Yesterday's low probably ended the drop from 1289.25. I still think that last week's up move was a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range. If the market closes this Friday below 1216 I will reassess this view.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000. A New York close this Friday below 1.3800 would probably change my mind about this.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on November 1, 2011

2011-11-01T09:18:00.001-04:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1198-1228. I still think that the October 4 low will hold. If the market closes this Friday below 1216 I will reassess this view.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is now at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000. A New York close this Friday below 1.3800 would probably change my mind about this.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on October 31, 2011

2011-10-31T09:11:00.001-04:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1260-1278. I think that the October 4 low will hold for the foreseeable future and the market is headed above its May 2011 top.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000. Support is at 1.3950

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I now think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on October 28, 2011

2011-10-28T09:08:00.000-04:00

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1264-1289. I now think that the October 4 low will hold for the foreseeable future and the market is headed above its February 2011 top.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I now think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

update

2011-10-27T15:21:00.001-04:00

I now believe that the move above the August 31 top is a genuine upside breakout. The implication is that this market is now going above the May 2 top which is at 1370 in cash.

sell the news

2011-10-27T10:13:00.004-04:00

Here is a 10 point box, 1 box reversal point and figure chart of the December e-minis going back to the July high.

As you can see the market this week has broken above the top of a 10 week trading range. The question now is whether this portends a move to 1500 or whether instead it is a false breakout.

For the time being I am going with the false breakout scenario. The breakout has been accompanied by news of the temporary resolution of the European debt crisis, and in my experience it is better to sell bullish news than it is to buy it. I might also note that at this morning's high the cash S&P has just kissed its declining 200 day moving average. finally, as you can see on the chart, a point and figure count across the base area associated with the October 4 low shows a potential rally to 1280-90, not far from today's high in the ES so far of 1273.25.

If I am right about this action being a false, upside breakout then the e-minis will soon drop back below the top of this trading range which stands at 1230. This in turn would be the beginning of a move to 950 or so.

If instead the market starts to accept prices above 1230 as fair value over the next week or two I will have to reassess my longer term bearish scenario.