Tuesday, June 14, 2005

The Big Picture on June 14

It is easy to be distracted by markets' day-to-day movements so it helps to remind oneself of the longer term picture, even when it hasn't changed. Here are some educated guesses about longer term trends in markets that interest me.

S&P - Headed for 1350 by the end of 2005, then down 20-25% in 2006.

Bonds - up into 120-122 range over the next few months then down to 100 by late 2006.

10 Year Notes - up to 116 over the next few months then down to 104 by late 2006.

3-month Eurodollars - will reach 4.85% by the end of 2006. Gold - up to 510 before the bull market ends.

Crude Oil - down to $ 27 over the next two years.

US Dollar index- up to 100 over the next year and to 121 by 2010

Eurocurrency - down to 107 over the next year and to 80 by 2010

Google - up to 376 by the end of 2005

IBM - up to 108 by the end of 2005

Microsoft - up to 42 by the end of 2005

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