Sunday, June 26, 2005

The Big Picture on June 26, 2005

It is easy to loose sight of the longer term prospects for a market when you are paying so much attention to shorter term fluctuations. Here are some educated guesses about longer term trends in markets that interest me.

S&P - Headed for 1350 by the end of 2005, then down 20-25% in 2006.

Bonds - up into 120-122 range over the next few months then down to 100 by late 2006.

10 Year Notes - up to 116 over the next few months then down to 104 by late 2006.

3-month Eurodollars - will reach 4.85% by the end of 2006. Gold - up to 510 before the bull market ends.

Crude Oil ? I am now looking for the big top in the $60-63 range. Then down to $ 27 over the next two years.

US Dollar index- Should react from 89-90 down to 84-85. Then up to 100 over the next year and to 121 by 2010

Eurocurrency ? Should rally from 120.60 to 126 or so then down to 107 over the next year and to 80 by 2010

Google - up to 376 by the end of 2005

IBM - up to 108 by the end of 2005

Microsoft - up to 42 by the end of 2005

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