Sunday, September 04, 2005

"The Bursting Point" - More Gloom and Doom

In "The Bursting Point", his op-ed column in the September 4 New York Times, David Brooks asserts that "confidence in civic institutions is plummeting ". He tells us that the "national humiliation" arising from Katrina and its aftermath "comes at the end of string of confidence-shaking institutional failures that have cumulatively changed the nation's psyche ". Brooks writes that each such failure " is another blow to national morale " and that "[t]he sour mood builds on itself, the outraged and defensive reaction to one event serving as the emotional groundwork for the next ".

"As a result, it is beginning to feel a bit like the 1970's, another decade in which people lost faith in their institutions and lost a sense of confidence about the future. "


I think Mr. Brooks spends way too much time in Washington D. C. and in New York City. But I also think his views are typical of many elite opinion leaders in the USA.

I do not believe that this is the sort of commentary that accompanies bull market tops. My conclusion: the long term trend in stock prices remains upward - stay long!


Anonymous said...

I really enjoyed your site Carl. In this world full of meaningless noises, you provide meaningful clarity to the market. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Carl, I differed with you on the objectivity and validation of your boxes (I read Darvas in the '60's), but I agree with you on current political sentiment. March 2003 was the buy of the decade on a sentiment basis, and now is not a bad one either.

A friend in China does a sophisticated media sentiment search on a weekly basis, and he is nowhere near a sell. His last buy was in the third week of May. His last sell was in 2000. My own sentiment work is shorter term and more conventional, but it says the same thing. As always I enjoy your work even when I don't agree completely.

Anonymous said...

I have really enjoyed your site Carl.

But not as an investment resource.

More like entertainment, really.

Ok, I won't be the bad buy -- but your optimism needs to cool out for a minute.

3 weeks ago you said BIDU was going to $270.

So my team and I laughed and now your topic du jour at

Stop going long on trash -- the smell is obvious!

Carl Futia said...

I aim to please!

By the way, I notice that the geniuses at Catablast felt free to plagiarize my September 1st post "Katrina and the Stock Market" in their September 2 post:

Not very nice.