Thursday, May 18, 2006

Guesstimates on May 18, 8:50 am ET

June S&P Futures: After the close yesterday the market dropped to 1268.25, not far from my 1266 target. I think it will go a bit lower today but I expect a rally back above 1290 to begin from this low. The drop from 1331 looks like only the first phase of a bigger three phase drop which will probably carry the S&P down to 1230 or so. After that I still expect a move to 1350 or higher.

June Bonds: The market made a higher low yesterday and will now move up to 106-26. Strength above 107 would have very bullish implications.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes should rally to 105-18 and more strength than that would have very bullish implications.

Euro-US Dollar: The market found support yesterday at 127.00 and has since rallied to 127.88. I don’t think the drop from 129.70 is over and resistance today is at 128.00.

Dollar-Yen: The yen moved well above the key 110.81 level yesterday so I think the low at 108.96 will hold. The market is preparing for a move up to 130.

June Crude: The market made a second consecutive lower top last week and now should drop to 66.50 on its way below 60.00.

June Gold: The market should drop to 665 or so and from that point another rally should start.

July Silver: Silver will probably continue down to 1100 or so.

Google: Google should drop further to 356 and then start a big rally.

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