Wednesday, May 17, 2006

S&P 3pm EDT update

Here is a 1 minute chart showing trading in the June S&P futures. I commented on the S&P earlier today here and here.

The market has broken below temporary support at 1274. Volume is quite a bit lower than on this mornings' break and I am willing to make an educated guess that another rally to the 1280 level is about to start.

However, I think we will see 1266 soon, maybe even tomorrow. If I am right about this I would have to conclude that the break from 1331 to 1266 was only the first phase of a three phase drop. If so I think the total drop from 1331 after all three phases are complete would be 75-100 points, comparable to the biggest drops we have seen during the bull market.

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