Tuesday, May 16, 2006


Here is a five minute bar chart showing regular hours trading in the June S&P futures. I last commented on this chart here.

The market couldn't follow through on its rally over the 1299 level and has dropped about 10 points from its high reached a little after today's open. The whole move up from the 1285.25 overnight low (not shown on this chart) was a three phase rally, but I think it was itself only the first phase of a somewhat bigger upmove. I originally thought this bigger move would reach the 1310-15 zone but today's break causes me to lower the target to 1306.

I think the break from today's high at 1301.50 will itself develop in three phases. The first looks complete to me and we should now see a brief rally into the 1297-98 zone. Then expect another drop to 1290 or so which should complete the move down from 1301.50. Finally from the 1290 low I think another rally, this time to 1306, will develop.

I still expect a drop from 1306 to 1266 or so which will complete the entire corrective phase from the 1331.25 high earlier this month.

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