Thursday, July 06, 2006

Guesstimates on July 6, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: I expect the market to drop to 1265 or so and then to rally to 1310. I think the drop from the May 5 top ended at the June 14 low of 1229. A move to new bull market highs is underway.

September Bonds: So far support at 105-18 has held and this makes me think the market is headed back to 106-08 and probably higher.

September 10 Year Notes: So far support at 104-06 has held and it is likely the market will now head up to 105-08. If we can finish the week above 104-18 I shall conclude that the notes are headed for the 107-108 zone.  

Euro-US Dollar: Support at 127.10 is holding and this means that the market should now rally to 130.00 or so. We should see the 131.00 level in a few weeks.

Dollar-Yen: Resistance today is at 115.60 and I am lifting my downside target from 111.50 to 113.10. I still think the yen is headed for the 130 level over the next year.

August Crude: The market has moved a few pennies above its old high at 75.35 and a close above that level will mean that it is heading for 78.00. I still think the more likely development will be a drop below 68.00 from here.

August Gold: Gold is headed for 662.  Support today is at 610.

September Silver: Silver is headed for 1270. Support today is at 1090.

Google:  Support is at 400 and I think GOOG will soon reach 430. I expect to see the market reach the 450-500 zone this summer.


Anonymous said...

RE: euro/US$

Carl, In May, you forecast the euro would fall to 106 by September. When I queried you on that forecast a few weeks later, you replied on May 16th that "If my long term views change I'll say so on my blog." You haven't posted a change in your long-term view, but today you forecast the euro at 1.31 "in a few weeks."

The two forecasts combined imply 1.31 to 1.06 in less than two months -- a rather extreme move.

Please clarify your long-term view, and if you have abandoned your 1.06-by-Sept forecast, please tell us when did you do so.

Thank you!

John Walker

Carl Futia said...

As I said in my last post on the euro:

I think the market will drop below 116 after it reaches 131. The timing of the move to below 116 has been adjusted to reflect market action.

Anonymous said...

People , you need to understand that Carls assumptions are less than 50% accurate especially ST. His approach is proactive and therefore he very often jojo`s around current market action to adjust .