Thursday, April 12, 2007

Guesstimates on April 12, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The market continues to show a pattern of lower highs and lows over the past few days so I now think the Spiders will drop to 143.00 before the move up to 146.50 starts. For the same reason I think the futures will drop a bit further to 1439 before starting to move up to 1475. New bull market highs will be seen during the next couple of months.

QQQQ: The Q’s should find support near 43.80 and then move up to resistance at 45.70. I am looking for a move up to 50.00 or higher over the next few months.

TLT - June Bonds: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds should hold temporary support near 110-00 and rally to 111-00 before resuming their decline to 109 or below.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold temporary support near 107-08 and rally to 108-00 before resuming their drop to 105-16.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is at 134.70 but I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 120.20 level is resistance and support is at 117.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: OIH has reached 151 and I think its long term drop is about to resume. USO is headed for 45. May crude should find temporary support at 60 but a drop to 55 or lower is underway.

GLD - June Gold
: GLD should hit 70 before it drops to 60 and below. June gold has resistance at 696 and then should drop well below 600.

SLV - May Silver: SLV should bounce off of resistance near 141 and then drop below 120. Silver has resistance at 1420 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started. Support now is at 460.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Carl,
Could you please explain what has changed for you to expect a move up to 70 first in GLD before the large drop\\?

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

http://www.nypost.com/seven/03202007/business/margin_debt_hits_a_record_business_.htm

Anonymous said...

You don't give-up on your Euro-us dollar forecast! The dollar is worthless!!!

Anonymous said...

When are we goin to see that 1430 this summer....HAHA!