Friday, February 22, 2008

Guesstimates on February 22, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market is still stuck in the 1340-1370 trading range. I expect an upside breakout from this range which will carry the e-minis up into the 1430-50 range fairly quickly. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold and that a rally to the 1430 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Resistance now stands at 118-04. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway. Resistance is at 116-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed for the 110 level. Support is at 106.50. I think the yen has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is hovering below resistance at 101. I think this is only a temporary move to new highs and that crude oil will soon head back down to below 85.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 900 level in the April contract.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support now is at 1610.

Google: Google has dropped near support at 500 and I think the next big move will be upward to 750 and higher.

5 comments:

BH_Trade said...

In the last 24 hours small caps have went from leading this market higher to trashing it lower. Doesn't look like the trading range breaks upside unless something drastic happens soon.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

First, I want to say that I respect and admire your work; I enjoy reading your comments every day. I find your approach to these markets both bold and refreshing. Not many traders are willing to showcase their work. We both know why, that’s because they have nothing to showcase. No one is right 100% of the time, but as long as a trader beats the odds, he’ll definitely make good money.

I’m also a trader and I follow my own trading system. Often enough, your work agrees with mine, and sometimes not so. But, as you have already said some time ago, it’s more important to follow the market and take the trade than to insist you’re right even though the market is saying otherwise.

With your permission, I would like to share my work with you by posting on your blog my buy and sell signals when they occur. My system is positional, not day trading. My last sell signal occurred on 10/16/07 at 1560.00 in the December contract that has since expired, I then had a buy signal on 1/23/08 at 1315.50 and have been long the March SP’s ever since. Of course, as you say, anyone can post a trade after the fact and claim it to be his own. This is why I would like to post my signals here with you in real time, or as close to real time as possible.

If you find my work interesting, I trust you’ll let me know by allowing it to be posted here. This is your choice, but I would like to share my trade calls with you, you may find them worth while.

Today, I just reversed to the short side at 1334.00 in the March SP on the first sell signal since last October. I will keep this short position only if the signal is confirmed on the close of trading at 4:15 pm EST, otherwise I will reinstate my long position This sell signal will be confirmed if we close below 1334.00 today.

Thanks.

PM

Anonymous said...

9 trading days to march 6th
going to be an interesting week next week
joe

LowTax said...

That was an interesting close. All day it looked like the traingle that has formed was going to be broken to the downside. That is, just until the end when a little bit of good news catapulted the market right back to the lower trendline of the triangle! Was the continuation of the triangle pattern dependant on that little bit of good news or did the market pick up on anything remotely positive that flashed across the screen as an excuse to continue the inevitable pattern? Chicken/egg.

Anonymous said...

the problem with the triangle is
everyone in the entire world is watching it and they are also
waiting for someone else to move the market outside of it . so which ever side breaks first will probably be the wrong side
my take is we are going to see more bi polar trading in the coming week , if the dow can manage 12588-12618 on the upside
monday then a move back down into march 6th to around 12800 or so
would be the false break to the down side out of the triangle im looking for . and then a powerful move up would begin .
for me it is more about the march 6th day of trading then anything else . as for the triangle it is a sign of a changing of the trend from down to up
joe