Thursday, June 12, 2008

Guesstimates on June 12, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: The S&P’s hit 1340 support yesterday and a rally into the 1370-75 range would be normal behavior now. I have been looking for bullish divergences in the advancing issues moving averages but none have shown up thus far. This leads me to believe that after a one or two day rally the market will resume its drop, probably down to 1300 or so. In any event I still expect a move up to 1500 once the drop from the May 19 top is complete.

QQQ: I now think the Q’s will drop into the 45-46 range before this reaction is complete.

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 111. Resistance is at 117-28. I think TLT will drop to 88.

September 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 111.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 103.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: Long term resistance remains in the 135-37 range and makes me think that the market’s next big move will be downward into the 112-115 zone.

GLD - August Gold: I think gold is headed for 750. Resistance is at 910.

SLV - July Silver: I think the trend in silver is downward and will carry the market at least to 1400.

Google: I now think Google will drop into the 500-510 range before this reaction ends.


Anonymous said...

good post on the S&P, as you mention the short, medium and long term. What factors will bring the S&P down to 1300? My no.1 guess is that crude will hit $150, as we saw last Friday,

Anonymous said...

im begining to think crude oil has already topped , more and more people thinking its going higher and yet the oil and gas index's are begining to decline , and the price of oil has not yet gotten above the 139.12 high .
short term there are some variables yet loks like oil is on the verge of a hard decline
i posted my thoughts here
if you wish to see

Anonymous said...

SLV - 1400 ???