Friday, June 27, 2008

Guesstimates on June 27, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I thought that the market was in a trading range but the drop through 1300 yesterday contradicted my expectation. The next support on the way down in 1272. There are emerging bullish divergences in the 5 and 10 day moving averages of advancing issues (click on My Charts on the right hand side of this blog). I still think that the March low at 1253 in the futures will hold and that the next big move will be upward to 1500.

QQQ: I think the Q’s will hold support in the 45-46 range and then begin a rally to 55.

TLT - September Bonds: I don’t see any sign of an important low shaping up so I think the bonds will drop to 109-110 before turning upward again. Resistance stands at 115 and a close above there will turn me bullish.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached the 111 level but there is still no sign of a significant low. I think the market will continue down to 109. Resistance stands at 113-24 and a close above there will turn me bullish.

Euro-US Dollar
: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 103.00.

XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude
: Long term resistance remains in the 135-37 range and makes me think that the market’s next big move will be downward into the 112-115 zone. A close above 140 will change my mind about this prognosis and mean that the market is headed for 160-165.

GLD - August Gold
: Gold closed above 910 resistance yesterday so I think the market is headed back to 1000.

SLV - July Silver: I think the trend in silver is downward and will carry the market at least to 1400. Resistance above the market is at 1760. It is holding so far but a close above there will turn me bullish.

: Yesterday’s general market weakness now makes me think that my revised target at 525 will no hold and that GOOG will drop into the 500-510 range as I originally thought it would. I think GOOG will then begin a move to 750 or above.


Anonymous said...

great blog here ! I commented about the vix and exchange volume as well as put calls not showing the kind of panic extremes they need to in the enivorment we are in. That was 2 days before the fed meeting. Even with the sell off yesterday these things aren't at true panic levels. I am bullish longer term so in the big context these things won't matter but in the short term I beleive we are headed to a minimuim of 1220 probably 1175 though. We may get a small bounce 1-2 % between here and next thurday but that is probably going to set up a great shorting opportunity. I think your target of 1250 is to conservative here. Every bottom has seen the spy trade at around 500 mil in share volume since the august low in 2007. I think that is something to watch contrary to popular beleif high volume sell offs are bullish and indicate true panic. That and the vix are the 2 great indicators of true panic. Unfortunately we aren't there.

Anonymous said...

You will not see the panic levels on the vix, as we are not in a panic. Just a sell-off, and 1250 WILL hold. Low shd be in and around 1270-1275 ... almost there.

Rick B.

Anonymous said...

March low is not going to hold... not sure why you keep thinking like that... look at $DJI, March low, even Jan low didn't mean anything technical significant... it just chop right through it... we are going down, is bear market... I don't expect drop stop until DOW break 10,000 and spx probably go toward 1080...

Anonymous said...

Euro moving down to 1.40 , Gold up to 1000, Silver down to 14.0. I simply don't get it.Dear readers pls do not bother to say how stupid I am.Regards.

Anonymous said...

All this side movement for euro in the zone 1.5300-1.5800 i think is a preparation for new highs level fifth wave at the zone 1.6250...
Best Regards and congrats for the excellent blog,
Dimitris ,

Anonymous said...

1.40 is a pretty bold statement, any hints on the time span ? the Euro is still in a very strong position and i wouldn't short it for the long pull yet, but appreciate your view on the market. Cheers.

Sam said...

Carl, you are the man once again. We'll see if the 1272 support holds on a retest after a short rally.

Thanks again for all you great work.



Anonymous said...

Hi, I would just like to add that implied volatility in the FX markets has been sold off very hard this past week while equities have declined. The most liquid FX implied vol curves have all steepened and even the carry trade pairs such as AUDJPY have seen vols come off considerably.