Friday, June 06, 2008

Guesstimates on June 6, 8:10 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The 1410 level is now resistance, but strength above there will force me to abandon my expectation of a drop to 1340. In either case I think the S&P will make it to the 1500 level in two or three months.

QQQ: The Q’s made a new rally high yesterday so I now think they will continue upward to 54.00.

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 111. Resistance is at 117-28. I think TLT will drop to 88.

September 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 111.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: I still think crude is on its way into the 112-115 zone. Resistance above the market is at 131.

GLD - August Gold: I think gold is headed for 750. Resistance is at 910.

SLV - July Silver: I think the trend in silver is downward and will carry the market at least to 1400.

Google: It now looks like the low Google made near 538 will hold. Next upside target is 640.


Anonymous said...

Todays selling into the 5 day cycle low has also become 'right justified'

45/10/5 day cycles all 'right justified' now which is normally extremely bullish.

Rally in todays crude also looks like bear market rally so if crude resumes its fall and crashes another $15-25 how about a 1000 point up day in the Dow sometime in June?

Anonymous said...

nervously long the dow 12309 based on the cash index.
if my cycles are correct then monday should prove to be a strong reversal to the upside .
not loving it yet sticking to my work

Sam said...


Nice calls. I think your feel for the market has been right on lately.

Best Regards,


Anonymous said...

Buy the dips....

I'm very interested in understanding what you mean by the 45/10/5 day cycles being right justified. Can you please explain or point me in the direction of a URL that explains this...Second, how can a new high in crude be considered a bear market rally...can you explain that.

Lastly...If I am reading correctly, we are forming a MAJOR 3 peaks and domed house formation...LEGENDARY IN SIZE...and we are arriving at point 14(when we bottom) and then a HUGE move to 15(13,600ish) on the DOW, then some major swings up and down for some months..Although, if you look at the Dow jones would appear that we have the formation closer to 15-20...should be interesting...Carl you have truly taught me to look at technical charts in a whole new light...YOU ARE AWESOME. Pardon the superfluous comments, but you do rock!!!

Anonymous said...

I think we are in the descent of the domed house right now...can you shed some possible perspective on this Carl? Kind regards, Janet

Anonymous said...

Carl based on your commodity and currency forecasts I wonder if Lindsay's analysis as well as your box theory is working only for the stock market?Your S&P calls are great but have never ever seen a correct guesstimate on gold,oil and euro. Thank you.