Thursday, July 31, 2008

Guesstimates on July 31, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I think the e-minis are now on the way to 1325. Support today is at 1260. I am long from 1240.50. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.  

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. Resistance above the market is at 116-00. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. Resistance above the market is at 115-00. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 158.50. 

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 112.00 is now underway.  Support is at 105.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is now headed for 100. The 131 level is now resistance. 

GLD - August Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 960. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver broke support at 1750 Friday so I think the market is now headed for 1250.  

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 


Anonymous said...

EURUSD is headed for 1.46, eventually 1.44. Crude oil is headed for 96 while 144 is strong resistance, in my opinion. I think gold has topped out and is headed down from 987 onward for 697 USD. Good trading all !MC

Anonymous said...

The way August gold is trading, is the front month now December?

Also yesterday MC you said next trade is a long one, long what? Long term do you mean?

Anonymous said...

I look at your charts but I don't always get how you pick price levels for your guesstimates (S&P). I can rationalize the current 1325 call, but I don't see why you expected the recent turn at 1290, which was precisely on target. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

i appreciate mr futia's courage in sticking to a specific set of tools and allowing alternate points of view... i was a seller at the recent high and a buyer of recent low... but now based on the same simple lines i was a seller again today on both retraces, contrary to mr.futia's thoughts.. i have again posted a chart for traders to see in the public chart section at the logic of the lines call for a rather sharp move down.

Anonymous said...

I am a seller down to 1,260 - it'll be interesting to see if we hold here long enough to test the 50-day MA. Carl will be right, but it might take a long time. I often disagree with his conclusions but unlike the bashers I won't trash his analysis. Magazine covers aside, the journalists have no idea how bad things are. John Thain is no dummy - he sold those CDOs for $0.05 and an option on another $0.17 on the dollar for a reason (that's what the seller financing amounted to). I love charts almost as much as Carl, but there is still a significant negative divergence between perception and reality. Simply put, the bottom will be when you turn on CNBC and they're talking about the death of the stock market rather than having a table full of bottom callers sitting there.

On the other hand, no matter how bad the fundamentals are, I start licking my chops when I see GOOG near $460 and GS near $150. We're not there yet, but we will be soon and there will be money to be made on the long side.