tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post3088890979008057656..comments2023-11-10T05:07:19.026-05:00Comments on Carl Futia: Guesstimates on August 6, 8:15 am ETCarl Futiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01624989905417650273noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-63869184547807541752008-08-07T15:06:00.000-04:002008-08-07T15:06:00.000-04:00Huge equity rally coming. Buy the fed funds futur...Huge equity rally coming. Buy the fed funds futures a 50 basis point cut is a certainty next meeting probably 75 basis point rate cut coming from the fed. The bullish reversal in the bond market today shows interest rates are headed a lot lower. Well below 3% on the 30 year bond stocks will soar after the first bailout of a major bank. Notice how stocks are holding up well today on horrible news!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-88217094901834849242008-08-06T12:25:00.000-04:002008-08-06T12:25:00.000-04:00Hi Carl,Due to the early morning spike up through ...Hi Carl,<BR/><BR/>Due to the early morning spike up through the buy price and back down again, I’m revising downward my buy points for this week. They are as follows:<BR/><BR/>Wednesday – 1281.80<BR/>Thursday – 1274.40<BR/>Friday – 1266.40<BR/><BR/>Again, Prices must close above that day’s corresponding price for a buy signal to be confirmed. Once the signal is confirmed, then we can expect the next wave of selling to appear at 1317.70, give or take a few ticks.<BR/><BR/>I believe once we close above these above prices the market should rally briskly. <BR/><BR/>Thank you.<BR/><BR/>Kindest regards,<BR/><BR/>PMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-10136484908238560442008-08-06T11:05:00.000-04:002008-08-06T11:05:00.000-04:00It is unusual, however, just how much stocks were ...It is unusual, however, just how much stocks were up just prior to the release, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 2% from yesterday's close. Over the past decade, I could find only one other day with such a large gain before the statement was even released – 3/18/08, which rallied into the close then gave it all back the next day. There was one other one with a +1.5% gain prior to the announcement (10/15/98), after which we again rallied into the close then went basically nowhere for a week.<BR/><BR/> <BR/><BR/>In total, there were 7 days that showed +1% gains prior to the FOMC release. They added on further gains into the close 4 times. But by the next day’s close, only 2 were higher than where the market was prior to the release, and the average return was -0.9%. Taken from the equivalent of today's close to the close three days from now, again 2 of 7 were positive and the average return was -0.6%. Both winners were under 1%, and the risk/reward was titled 2-to-1 to the downsideAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12333088.post-57605208850622182842008-08-06T08:50:00.000-04:002008-08-06T08:50:00.000-04:00You're expecting Google to go up 65% back to its a...You're expecting Google to go up 65% back to its all time high? Could you please provide a rationale for such an expectation? Given that stock prices tend to increase based on future expectations, I can't understand what Google is planning to merit a 65% gain in stock price, especially considering their recent failures to meet earnings estimates.<BR/><BR/>Also, could you please provide a time frame for this expectation?TheKinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06747176672267063971noreply@blogger.com