Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Guesstimates on May 17, 8:50 am ET

June S&P Futures: The market has dropped well below 1290 support early this morning so I must conclude that it about to take another step down, this time to 1274 or so. I expect to see a rally from that level before the downside target in the 1265-70 range is reached.

June Bonds: A move down to 104-20 or so from resistance at 106-14 has begun.

June 10 Year Notes: A move down to 104-04 or so from resistance at 105-06 has begun.

Euro-US Dollar: The market moved a little above 128.90 resistance overnight but the rally from yesterday’s low has been a slow one relative to recent rallies. Since the drop from the 129.70 high still does not have a three stage look to it I think the next important move will be downward to 126.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is trading sideways in preparation for a big move up. A rally over the 111.50 level would tell me that this advance has begun. Today the 108.80 level is support.

June Crude: The  market made a second consecutive lower top last week and now should drop to 66.50 on its way below 60.00.

June Gold: The rally from 675 should not go above resistance which today stands at 720. The next downside target is 665.

July Silver: Silver broke back below support at 1440 and will now probably continue down to 1210 or so. Resistance today is at 1405.

Google: Google should drop further to 356 and then start a big rally.

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