Monday, March 19, 2007

Guesstimates on March 19, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: I still think the Spiders will rally to 140.50. Support is in the 137.80 to 138.30 zone. After the rally I shall expect a move down to 135. The corresponding number for the June futures are 1415, 1392, and 1360.

QQQQ: The market is headed for resistance at 43.70. I have raised the target for the entire correction to 41.00.

TLT - June Bonds
: TLT is headed up into the 94-95 range. The bonds should hold the112-08 level and then rally to 114-24. Over the next few months the bonds are headed for 120.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes made their low on January 26 and are now headed for 111. Short term support is at 108-08 and the next upside target is 109-18.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for 134.20, a new high for the move up from the 116.39 low. However, I think that the next 500 pips from current levels will be down, not up.

Dollar-Yen: My best guess now is that the entire drop from the 122.18 level will carry the market to 113. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - April Crude: OIH should soon drop to 129-130. USO should drop to 45. April crude is headed down to 54.50.

GLD - April Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is at 665.

May Silver: Silver has begun an extended drop that will carry the market below 1000. Resistance in the futures is at 1336.

Google: Support in Google is at 430. From there a move to 564 will begin.

1 comment:

  1. Day-to-Day indicator for 3/19/07. Probability of SP-500 being up = .56

    I would like to share one of my indicators for predicting the direction of the market.
    Since I have been tracking it, the success rate is 61%(z-stat=1.86, 301 days)
    Success is defined as Prob(up) > .5 and SP closing higher,
    or Prob(up) < .5 and SP closing lower. So, todays indicator has an UP bias.

    Last week's numbers:

    DAY ... P(up)... SP-500
    Monday .60 ...... UP
    Tuesdy .52 ...... DN
    Wensdy .60 ...... UP
    Thusdy .65 ...... UP
    Friday .38 ...... DN

    The following are equidistant levels for the Cash-SP. To trade the futures add the premium.

    1404.64
    1400.96
    1397.28
    1393.60
    1389.93
    1386.25
    1382.57
    1378.90
    1375.22
    1371.54
    1367.86
    1364.19
    1360.5

    ReplyDelete