Carl, You're an astute guy and I'm sure you have been noticing that the market has been going DOWN. The internals are continueing to weaken as support after support is broken. By my calculations we are at least two weeks away from any sort of intermediate term bottom. So WHY is it again that you want to go LONG the market here? Thanks in advance.
Having read the comments above I feel compelled to make a response if I may. When one trades a system with a near to medium term bias, it is not generally advisable to take even short term counter trade positions. Why? Because the market can immediately change it's mind and move in the direction of your bias.
Getting stranded with positions that are against your bias is a double whammy that will kill the morale and will to live for anyone who is (i) smart enough to have a medium term position, (ii) brave enough to trade it, (iii) resolute enough to stick with that trade against the shorter term volitility and shakeouts.
Imagine doing all of (i)-(iii) and then getting stranded with a puppy that you do not want to carry.
We just about got a Dow Theory Confirmation today. It looks as though we may get it. Now based on my cyclical work we are still looking for a low by mid Dec with a week timing band. Now many are looking for the 9 month low to crest as well but with a Dow Theory Confirmation, a 3rd phase of the current 20 week cycle may be in the cards in which case the rally out of December will be muted and lower lows to come by late Jan. to complete the 20 week nominal cycle and correct this 4 year cycle. But one step at a time and regardless of my bias, I'm a swing trader which is the only constant I possess.
Volume highest since August. Short term bottom appears to be in place. I would have liked to see the QQQQs hit the 200 dma but you can't ask for everything.
This year, the Grinch will not steal Christmas after all. This is a good thing ! But many will not enjoy the sleigh ride upward because they are clueless.
Buy the Nas 100 because of no exposure to the financials. S & P has 19% financials which is a bad thing these days.
Dear sir ,
ReplyDeletewould it be better to short the market somewhere ?( 1.456,50 now).
If u believe 1421 may be reached.
How much is that order as a % of your capital? TIA
ReplyDeleteLatest Front cover of Economist looks bullish
ReplyDeletehttp://economist.com/images/20071117/20071117issuecovUS160.jpg
Hi Carl,
ReplyDeleteJust wondring why you don;t short the ES as your long entry is so far away!
Thanks,
Carlos
Lunar Fractal negative into late November early December
ReplyDeletehttp://img102.imageshack.us/img102/3933/moonphasesiq6.jpg
This weeks T Theory report is interesting
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ttheory.com/2007/11/t-theory-observ.html
Hi Carl,
ReplyDeleteCould you detail why did you selected the 1421 as your entry level and not 1420 for example.
Thanks
Joe
Carl,
ReplyDeleteYou're an astute guy and I'm sure you have been noticing that the market has been going DOWN. The internals are continueing to weaken as support after support is broken. By my calculations we are at least two weeks away from any sort of intermediate term bottom. So WHY is it again that you want to go LONG the market here? Thanks in advance.
Having read the comments above I feel compelled to make a response if I may. When one trades a system with a near to medium term bias, it is not generally advisable to take even short term counter trade positions. Why? Because the market can immediately change it's mind and move in the direction of your bias.
ReplyDeleteGetting stranded with positions that are against your bias is a double whammy that will kill the morale and will to live for anyone who is (i) smart enough to have a medium term position, (ii) brave enough to trade it, (iii) resolute enough to stick with that trade against the shorter term volitility and shakeouts.
Imagine doing all of (i)-(iii) and then getting stranded with a puppy that you do not want to carry.
Carl: for you
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNxiz8W8UZQ
another believer!!
Carl,
ReplyDeleteYou've been trying to pick a bottom since DOW 13,800. At what point would you hang it up and realize the BEAR MARKET is here?
We just about got a Dow Theory Confirmation today. It looks as though we may get it. Now based on my cyclical work we are still looking for a low by mid Dec with a week timing band. Now many are looking for the 9 month low to crest as well but with a Dow Theory Confirmation, a 3rd phase of the current 20 week cycle may be in the cards in which case the rally out of December will be muted and lower lows to come by late Jan. to complete the 20 week nominal cycle and correct this 4 year cycle. But one step at a time and regardless of my bias, I'm a swing trader which is the only constant I possess.
ReplyDeleteVolume highest since August. Short term bottom appears to be in place. I would have liked to see the QQQQs hit the 200 dma but you can't ask for everything.
ReplyDeleteThis year, the Grinch will not steal Christmas after all. This is a good thing ! But many will not enjoy the sleigh ride upward because they are clueless.
Buy the Nas 100 because of no exposure to the financials. S & P has 19% financials which is a bad thing these days.
Time discovers truth.
i love this site
ReplyDeleteconsidering a 100 year view we are at a bottom
ReplyDelete