Spiders - December S&P E-mini Futures: I think the market is headed for 890. Resistance today is at 950. I think there is a good chance that the October 10 low at 837 will hold for quite a while, but even if it doesn’t the 810 level probably will.
QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 28.50 before the next rally can start.
TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower.
December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone.
Euro-US Dollar: Support in the Euro is now at 127. From there a rally into the 135-37 range will become likely.
Dollar-Yen: I now think the yen will drop to 93. Resistance above the market is still at 104.
XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: I still think the market will rally to 81.00 and possibly to 88.00 before the downtrend resumes.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600.
SLV - December Silver: The market has reached the 900 downside target. Resistance is at 1180.
Google: Google should rally to 425. Support remains in the 310-30 range.
Carl, would you add a link on the main page to your StockCharts book? At the moment I have to hunt an peck to find it. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe link is on the right had side of my blog and has been there for months: "My Chart List"
ReplyDeleteCarl, could you illustrate your longer term EW outlook for the SP500 to see how it fits with this:
ReplyDelete* Wachovia Sees cumulative 22 percent loss over remaining life of Pick-a-Pay
portfolio, up from 12 percent forecast in July
Thats a further 10-point loss in just TWO MONTHS?!? (The Wachovia Option ARM
portfolio was about $120bn). If you assume similar rates of deterioration in
"toxic" mortgage portfolios across the system, Paulson's $250bn in new capital
will simply disappear into the black hole of legacy losses, just as all the
private capital infusions have to date. Policy choices are boiling down to
these: nationailze the bulk of the banking system, engage in an asset-price
directed money-printing program, or let this run and purge the system with
depressionary conditions for a few years.
I didn't think that Carl necessarily took Elliot Wave counts into consideration. Right?
ReplyDeleteCarl, any trades today? I've profited today with your speculation of the market going lower to 890. I shorted 1 unit and made 16 points. ted
ReplyDeleteWe could another wave of selling after 3pm est. Failure to get below 900 will prompt short covering back towards 920 area.
ReplyDeleteEDS
Great 890 call.
ReplyDeletepjm
nice guesstimates, Carl; again, I appreciate your work more each day
ReplyDelete890, check; next, a bounce?
Qs, almost; lower vol
euro, gold on track
but, oil to $45?
Just a little humor here but I'm guessing with that forecast you were going long all day!! :) nice call tho
ReplyDeleteMr. F.
ReplyDeleteI think we are very very close to turning point of the bear run.
I would like to offer you my gratitude for all the lessons you have given.
I have been maintaining almost exact opposite view from you for a while, but never the less, the strength I was able to maintain also has a lot to do with your lesson of "Standing your ground as a trader."
I frequent a bear blog, and I did use one of your lessons of identifying a major support. And I did turn the credit where it belongs.
You really do not need to post this or the link. The link is for you.
http://slopeofhope.com/2008/10/crash_setup.htm?disqus_reply=3246705#comment-3246705
Actually you will see my comment under T.B.Aurelius.(same as T.C.B.)
Thanks and God bless!