Carl Excellent call this morning on trading down to 775 before the cash market open, adding on to a winnner and bailing out on waning momentum. This second trade looks a more aggressive.....than again; you're more insightful many of us! Thank you for the blog.
I realized almost immediately after my last post a few days ago -- about your inherent bullish bias -- that I was wrong about you only looking for bottoms in this bear market. You do look for tops as well. Saying we should go up to 1000 is looking for a top to short. So you are obviously using Box theory along with support and resistance on charts to come up with your targets. So I hope that you ignored that nonsensical part of the last comment.
I of course very much respect your skills, but I am curious about how you perceive your bullish bias to affect your trading. For me, if a market is overbought and I can see it as such -- riding on a hope and a fart as it was in late 2007 -- I want to either get out of my longs or short, and I have a propensity to look for tops too early. Conversely, in an environment such as today's, I look for bottoms because to me, we are oversold. For a trader, this instinct is clearly pernicious. In the past, it has been for me.
By the way, from where I stand, I clearly disagree with the end of the world callers. I think that this is our generation's Depression, and we will learn a lot from it, but as our grandfathers did, we will emerge stronger. I see the world advancing in a series of cycles, just as Wave theory does, and see this Depression as less severe than the one before.
My new and cocky crystal ball says that we will see a wave 5 of 5 bottom some time early next year, at around 6300 or 6400 on the Dow, around a 62.8% of the entire 1983 to 2007 advance. We may get a small bull market after that but I wouldn't be surprised to see an up and down meandering with no clear advance until 2011. Like others who read your blog, I am very curious about your long-term views and your perception of where we are in the Linsey cycles.
Carl
ReplyDeleteExcellent call this morning on trading down to 775 before the cash market open, adding on to a winnner and bailing out on waning momentum.
This second trade looks a more aggressive.....than again; you're more insightful many of us!
Thank you for the blog.
Jim
Good trading, Carl.
ReplyDeleteI realized almost immediately after my last post a few days ago -- about your inherent bullish bias -- that I was wrong about you only looking for bottoms in this bear market. You do look for tops as well. Saying we should go up to 1000 is looking for a top to short. So you are obviously using Box theory along with support and resistance on charts to come up with your targets. So I hope that you ignored that nonsensical part of the last comment.
I of course very much respect your skills, but I am curious about how you perceive your bullish bias to affect your trading. For me, if a market is overbought and I can see it as such -- riding on a hope and a fart as it was in late 2007 -- I want to either get out of my longs or short, and I have a propensity to look for tops too early. Conversely, in an environment such as today's, I look for bottoms because to me, we are oversold. For a trader, this instinct is clearly pernicious. In the past, it has been for me.
By the way, from where I stand, I clearly disagree with the end of the world callers. I think that this is our generation's Depression, and we will learn a lot from it, but as our grandfathers did, we will emerge stronger. I see the world advancing in a series of cycles, just as Wave theory does, and see this Depression as less severe than the one before.
My new and cocky crystal ball says that we will see a wave 5 of 5 bottom some time early next year, at around 6300 or 6400 on the Dow, around a 62.8% of the entire 1983 to 2007 advance. We may get a small bull market after that but I wouldn't be surprised to see an up and down meandering with no clear advance until 2011. Like others who read your blog, I am very curious about your long-term views and your perception of where we are in the Linsey cycles.