Thursday, January 15, 2009

Early Action

Here is a 5 minute bar chart of the e-minis covering yesterday's daytime action and today's thus far.

The most significant fact that stands out in this chart is that today's early selling occurred on very high volume, the highest volume the market has seen this year with the exception of the half hour of trading which followed the release of the employment number on January 8. This shows that the sellers are still in control of this market. I expect support to come in near 815 which should prove to be very near today's low.

A normal rally from 815 would carry the market up about 15 points. A rally bigger than that would mean that a 40-50 point rally will have begun.
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11 comments:

  1. Anonymous1/15/2009 10:26:00 AM

    Once again, Carl, thank you. I have a day job that's been pretty demanding lately, and your daily calls are really helping me out. I had been feeling snakebit recently, missing opportunities and trading badly overall. The past few days, I've been doing much better using your advice as a guide.

    Your work is much appreciated.

    dark1p

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  2. pimaCanyon1/15/2009 10:27:00 AM

    these intra-day updates with charts showing volume are very helpful. Thanks for all you do here!

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  3. Anonymous1/15/2009 10:28:00 AM

    Okay Carl. I bought some at 818 and will buy some more at 815. Hopefully we'll see that 15 points you promised ;)

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  4. Anonymous1/15/2009 10:42:00 AM

    A tip of my hat to you! Too early for sure, but it's looking frighteningly like you may have nailed this move.

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  5. PM1/15/2009 10:44:00 AM

    Hi Carl,

    I bought my second long at 817.00 just now. Now long two with and average price of 825.00.

    Thanks.

    Kindest regards,

    PM

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  6. Anonymous1/15/2009 11:04:00 AM

    I'm surprised some people trade off these calls - you should DYOR, esp. in opex week. Looks like the boyz will rip the longs!
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$cpci,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb3!b8][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]

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  7. Anonymous1/15/2009 11:05:00 AM

    I'm looking for another wave of selling that will take us down a little lower ahead of the European cash equity close. That *should* be the low for this move.

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  8. PM1/15/2009 11:30:00 AM

    Tim Q.,

    I'm not "trading off these calls," as you phrase it, I do my own homework, but often enough my work agrees with Carl's.

    Thanks.

    Kindest regards,

    PM

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  9. Anonymous1/15/2009 12:29:00 PM

    Today's low should be around the 804-807 level. FWIW.

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  10. Anonymous1/15/2009 01:39:00 PM

    Looking for selling opportunity around 824-830 area

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  11. Anonymous1/15/2009 01:56:00 PM

    Carl, thanks for the 15 ES points. Your blog is great.

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