Thursday, February 12, 2009

Guesstimates on February 12, 2009

March S&P  E-mini Futures:  I think the e-minis are headed for 805 and possibly lower. Resistance today again stands near the 834 level.

 QQQ: Support is at 29.00 and the next upside target is 32.50.

March Bonds: The bonds have dropped into the 126-27 target zone. The next big move in this market should be upward. Any significant weakness below 125 will mean that a bear market is underway.   

March 10 Year Notes: The notes have yet to reach our 120 target. We think a substantial rally is imminent, but weakness below 120 would mean that a bear market is underway.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has traded sideways after dropping as low as 127.50.  I think a rally to 137 or so is underway. 

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is underway. 

March Crude: March crude has entered the 30-35 target zone. I think the market will start stabilizing. The next big move should be a rally to 50.

GLD – April Gold: Gold closed over the 935 resistance level yesterday.  I think the market will quickly trade back below it, but if it doesn’t I’ll be looking for new highs in the gold market.

SLV - March Silver: There is resistance at 1380, but if the market closes above there it will be headed for 1750.

Google: Resistance stands at 375. I think that its drop from 747 is over. 

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4 comments:

  1. Anonymous2/12/2009 08:58:00 AM

    I am long. I think Europe put the bottom and the trend is weak on the downside. It is just a matter of time when the rally will start

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous2/12/2009 09:39:00 AM

    Carl I agree with a bottom around the 775 to 795 area
    but I am selling now Feb ES 760 puts the premium is just too enticing with 6 TD left.

    cheers
    SUSN

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous2/12/2009 09:46:00 AM

    Dear Carl,
    Today will be a big day after the sideways yesterday today we will have a down rally until the 800 and then the figures will do the rest,up or down
    Regards
    R.J.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Win2/12/2009 10:49:00 AM

    Susn,
    I too am contemplating selling Feb Puts (covered by my longer term Puts), but am thinking about waiting until 805 or so before I do so. I think this drop may take us to retest the November lows, but have confidence in my MMs. The good people will bring us up slightly for Opex, never fear.

    ReplyDelete