Here is a thirty minute bar chart of the e-mini day session for the past two weeks. My estimated range for tomorrow is represented by the blue rectangle. Its low is midpoint support defined by today's afternoon reaction - roughly the 711 level. It high is midpoint resistance near 740 which is also the level of the November 21 low.We had a demand shock this morning and this means that the short term trend is upward. Over the next few weeks I expect to see the market rally to 840. After that, we'll see.
3 comments:
i think that's double top. we have got nice 50% retracement, good for a short
Carl,
good day. It looks like my "forecast" has not panned out. At least short-term. Nice trade! Thank you for the day! Val
Hi Carl,
the mark-to-market issue is still scheduled to be discussed on Thursday by the House Financial subcommittee. This is creating a lot of speculation talk on Wall Street and in the pits. The speculation is that financials could have a 50%++ spike up from current oversold levels if the rules are changed. The S&P 500 is made up of 13.29% financials, so such a move would also make an appreciable impact on the S&P ... IF it happens.
I usually don´t care if the environment I trade in is Bull,Bear or Trading Range but I thought that I share here that the overwhelming consensus is that what we see here and in the near future can ONLY be bear mkt. rallies and the general feeling is that there is no urgency to participate on the way up since 1 or 2 weeks down the road it will be again a lot lower and so on.
There are multiple LT positive-divergences that could give us a serious "V" upside spike .
Bear Markets typically only have very short up moves that end in a quick failure.
Up moves that lasted more than 1 to 7 days occurred on only 16.6% of the up move attempts during the 2000/2002 Bear Market and 15% lasted longer than a month .
I am long FXI, URE and UYG in my swing trading accounts.
cheers
Susn
Post a Comment