Here is today's e-mini wave chart. The market has been drifting upward today on low volume. The top of my range estimate is the 800 level (blue line). Unless volume picks up dramatically to the downside I think the low end of today's range will now be 780, not 775.The current upwave will tell us a lot about the market's strength or weakness. I expect it to end below 800, but any higher volume strength above that level will flip me to the bull side.
The midpoint of today's range is the dashed red line. Weakness below that level will be very bearish.
Just why is the market up today, someone from Washington say something positive or is the market reacting against the real fundamentals of a down market?
ReplyDeleteMight have something to do w/ end of quarter.
ReplyDeleteHi carl
ReplyDeleteill call today constructive for the bullish case . the break aove 800 was a good sign on the spx yet
the dow has a cleaner pattern as far as im concerned . the 7600 area in the dow should begin to become a stronger support going forward .rough equivalant is 795 on cash spx .i would not be suprised if the market drifted lower in a choppy complex pattern
through out the rest of the day .
Its the same reason why it goes up or comes down..The banks are viable today--barclays passed the stress test--and tomorrow it will their books again. This has become boring, caused so much confusion and pain. The bank books must be totally made public or they should be delisted, and nationalized. Well as i did point out the FTSE is up 4% and nothing much happening here..for a change U.S is following!
ReplyDeleteisn't there a vote to change mark to market on Thur. which will help all Financials balance sheets and earnings, which would be bullish
ReplyDeletehi carl
ReplyDeletei should add something , if one was to look at the 10 week moving average of up volume minus down volume on the nyse , they would see that over the past 12 years
it has tended to swing in a very
wide expanding triangle pattern
on march 10 2008 the reading was minus 432849 july 7 2008 the reading was minus 433142 and last fridays reading was minus 431183
just slightly above and yet very oversold on a very long term perspective . in each case looking at the dow march 10 2008 brought a significant rally lasting into may june , in july 2008 we got a into august september 2008 and now here we are again , i find it a bit ironic tha many call this market overbought , when such long term internals are actually still extremely oversold .'
nuff said
joe
This last box from the High on the 26th to the low on the 30th equals 56 1/2 points. Any significance?
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Ron
last thought on today market action
ReplyDeletelooking at a 3 minute dow chart and ill admit the very short term patterns dont always work yet the count from the low counts as 5 waves up yet it appears to be extending which could imply something larger , also it is a
3 peaks domed house pattern ,
point 10 being the 7600 level on the dow . just another veiw yet
same price support area going forward , my bias is longer term bullish so well see how this plays out in the coming days
joe