I thought that the market was staging a high volume breakout below 812 so I got short at 811.50. Thirty minutes later the e-minis were trading above my entry price. Volume remained moderately high during this 30 minutes of sideways action.
This is not the right rhythm for a breakout move. I always expect fast results on this kind of trade. When I don't get them, especially if the day had seen relatively low trading activity, I suspect a shakeout instead of a breakout and get out of the trade.
It's a very difficult market today. Short still seems ok for a bit but short leash seems right.
ReplyDeleteYou did the right thing.
ReplyDeleteA day in which first 30 min range is broken 4 times on the upside and 4 times on the downside, is not one like keep position...a long time...
I still doubt the rally will last very long. Only a break above 830 could give some room to rally...
Lately, there have been a lot of shake-downs and fake-outs.
ReplyDeletehi carl
ReplyDeletewhat i think is going on
is we got 1 2 3 4 5 and this
has been an expanding triangle
and in lindsays mid section count
it would be H this now calls for a move to around 8100 on the dow into point jj . my cycles turn upwards today so i give monday for the real move if this is going to hold . in an elliot wave pattern
we have just or we are about to complete wave b . hence 1 2 3 4 5
a b c d e ( expanding triangle 60 min chart ) we came to the apex
and are now turning up .
ive been bafflded the past several days and i have also been doubting my cycles . so maybe im wrong but that would be the most bullish count . point jj would be roughly
wednesday next week yet my cycles
point higher into april 10th which is the following week .
to soon to call it but my bias is we are now completing the B wave
it has untill mondays open to complete if it hasnt completed already. some clarity anyway
well see very soon
joe
Hi Carl,
ReplyDeleteMy model has been on a buy since we traded above and closed above 787.20 on Monday. My work told me that the first overhead resistance price would be 821.50, we actually hit that price on Monday. The second overhead resistance price was 830.50, give or take, and it was also hit exactly. I'm not looking for credit here, but only to point out that this current weakness is to be expected as part of a 40 point pull back.
Also, late March is the end of the month and the end of the quarter; books are being squared and weakness is typical. I anticipate that April will be a bullish month with earnings season beginning and with the absolute worst earnings reports already factored into market prices. But, I don't think earnings will be as bad as expected. Therefore, I believe we can only move higher from here.
My next overhead resistance price is 968.70, give or take a few ticks, although I'll probably have one closer to the market once this corrective phase is completed and we resume the rally.
Meanwhile I remain long and plan to enjoy the ride. I believe the bear market ended on March 6th, but we're still going to see a choppy and very nervous market climb that proverbial "wall of worry" every step higher along the way.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Things seem very sloppy today. Sideways through Monday with a sharp drop Tuesday and Wednesday feels right to me.
ReplyDeleteThe volume today was extremely low. The short term top is in.
ReplyDeleteSharp retracement drop may come in as early as Monday.
was there a time when you have actually turned bearish ? this is an honest question, i just wonder if you are a permabull.
ReplyDeletecarl is not a permabull but he does admit to missing the 2008 bear market. And now that the 2008bear market has already reached panic and price extremes, do you expect him to be bearish? Looks like you will have to wait many many months for carl to be bearish, that is assume he does not miss the next bear market again.
ReplyDeleteHi Carl,
ReplyDeleteI just added to my long position at 812.00 just minutes ago, I think we're ready to move higher. I now have two long positions, the first at 784.00 and the second at 812.00, this gives me an average of 798.00 for both positions.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM