Here is a five minute bar chart of today's e-mini day session. I am revising my range estimate for today by bringing up the estimated low 10 points to 820 (blue rectangle). A reaction from today's high which matches the depth of yesterday's late reaction would take the e- minis down to 821 (dotted purple rectangle). If the 840 level is going to be reached today, I think the market could react a little more than this, but should not go lower than 816 - 10 points below the open (dashed red line).
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ReplyDeleteshorting...or wait and see for a new price range?
ReplyDeleteHard to imagine how the G20 and market to market news will play out by week's end, I'd expect some slippage, since this seems to be a "wall of worry" scenario.
Hi Carl,
ReplyDeleteWould you please share with us the program/site you use to generate these charts? It would be very much appreciated.
Thanks
Dude dont short on things like these. The banks will have a earnings pop of 20% apparently. I absolutely hate it, as they claim the model is wrong , the cashflows are inherently not that risky..the default probabilities is to blaim. Then why dont they fix the model. Its all a big b.s, the value may be in the eye of the beholder. Also they can fix the problem of banks lending but who is to borrow? By making money real cheap they will create the next round of losers..the one just above sub prime..and as they say the show will go on
ReplyDeleteI've gone short. Seems to be an absense of sellers that's driving the market as opposed to buying pressure. Plus, we're pretty much at resistance.
ReplyDeleteDear 12:15 pm:
ReplyDeleteMost of the charts you see are generated by Interactive Brokers Traders Workstation application. The chart markings come from a standard screen capture program.
Something to keep in mind, there are huge numbers being traded in SPY Puts today.
ReplyDeleteA lot of Puts traded already today, now maybe some are exiting to avoid further erosion but some have to be bets on down and if not hedges to prevent losses on future drops.
These are SPY options all Puts
June 72 28,629
May 80 16,045
May 79 3,598
May 78 5,432
May 77 4,061
May 75 6,256
May 70 2,726
Apr 85 14,289
Apr 84 20,851
Apr 83 28,258
Apr 82 26,766
Apr 81 41,172
Apr 80 68,574
Apr 79 30,963
Apr 78 27,332
Apr 77 15,410
Apr 75 15,258
THANK YOU VERY MUCH! I really appreciate it. You are truly great at what you do.
ReplyDelete