September S&P E-mini Futures: I think that support at 867 will hold and that the e-minis are in the early stage of a move which will carry into the 965-80 zone. I estimate today's day session range will be 873-890.
QQQ: Support is at 34.00. The next upside target is 39.90.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): From its December ’08 low at 2.52% the yield on the long bond rallied to 4.83% on June 10. Support is at 4.20%. The next big move will be a swing upward in yield to above the 5.00% level.
TNX (ten year note yield): From its December ’08 low at 2.04% the 10 year yield rallied to 4.01% on June 10. Support at 3.40 was broken yesterday, but I still think that the next swing up is about to begin and should take the yield on the notes to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: There is no sign of a top. Support is at 137.50 and I think the market will continue upward to 146.00.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has reached the 92.50 downside target and soon will begin a move up to 105.00.
August Crude: The trend in crude oil is now downward and will carry the market as least to the 55.00 level. Resistance above the market is at 67.00.
GLD – August Gold: Support at 920 was broken yesterday. I want to give this market the benefit of the doubt so I will wait for weakness below 900 before I conclude that the market is headed much lower.
SLV - September Silver: Silver is headed to 1700. Support is at 1250.
Google: Support is at 395. Next upside target is 500.
Carl, how do you reconcile stocks headed higher, the USD headed lower (according to EURUSD going higher) with oil headed lower? Lower oil with a weaker USD and stronger stocks would disrupt positive vs. negative risk appetite correlations we have grown accustomed to. I actually see oil as encountering critical support right about now which is to say that I think the correlations will persist as I also think stocks continue up. MK
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