I just sold my long position at 951.75. (I added the chart about 5 minutes after this post first appeared.) The market had held support at 951.50 (purple dotted line) but I didn't like the fact that it failed to bounce up away from that level as soon as it was hit. Instead the ES hovered there, even edging a bit lower at times. Then we saw a rally to 954, but a rally on relatively low volume. In the last hour of trading the market then put in a wide range, high volume down bar from this lower top (red arrows). This kicked me out.
Why did I buy the apparent breakout earlier? Well, as you know I am bullish on this market. And it wasn't showing any tendency to react. The real danger I saw was that it would run up 10 or 20 points without me, and I was willing to accept a modest loss to guarantee that I wouldn't be left behind in that event
Carl,
ReplyDeleteCan you do a blog on how u come up with these boxes and midpts or daily ranges? Your ranges are pretty good and was wondering what is the mathematics if any behind that?
Thx
Carl,
ReplyDeletea lot of technical on 60, 15, 5 minute charts were against you
market strength, as manifested by bid and close action these past days were statistically with you.
It was a fascinating trade, playing some technicals against the other
I kind of hoped you'd pull it off, the buyers of the close may still show up