Thursday, December 31, 2009

Guesstimates on December 31, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1120-1130. So far the market has dropped about 15 points from Tuesday's high of 1128.50. I think that the ES is still in a 1105-1130 trading range and will visit the low end of this range before it moves substantially higher. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 79.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

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4 comments:

  1. PM12/31/2009 09:05:00 AM

    Hi Carl,

    Yesterday's sell signal was not confirmed, so this market has yet another opportunity to continue higher. Today, the market must close ABOVE 1130.40 for this rally to continue next week or we will then see that pull back.

    Thanks.

    Kindest regards,

    PM

    ReplyDelete
  2. All good..all good12/31/2009 09:19:00 AM

    Dear Carl,
    Happy New Year! Thanks for always
    teaching and sharing your brilliant insight.
    KD

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous12/31/2009 12:57:00 PM

    Carl, Happy New Year!

    ES has been spending a lot of time around 1118. A breakdown is likely.

    Moreover, traders returning after the market holidays will be tempted to take their holiday profits. Holding a long position during a long weekend is not a good idea anyways.

    1105 seems to be a good target in the near term.

    However, caution should be a good strategy for the long weekend into the New Year. Bullish hangover of the market may spill into the New Year.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous12/31/2009 03:55:00 PM

    The breakdown from 1118 was fast and furious. It is surely goes down fast, on a New Year eve!

    The bears had a bad year.

    Happy New Year to all but bears need it most.

    The bulls had a great 2009 and can surely afford to extend their vacations till the end of 2010?

    ReplyDelete