Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Early Update
The ES has just shown high volume selling over a wide range, 30 minute bar almost entirely below 1083 support. This means that the market is headed for the 1055-60 range. From there I think a rally to 1200 will begin.
Becuse the retracement from the low at ES = 1066.50 was only 38.2%,there is a good chance of the support at 1066.50 will be broken and we will see lower lows, if not today, maybe tomorrow.
who are you Jeff? Seriously, be at least a little objective, especially knowing Carl's track record. EWT is played, it works in retrospect, but the EWT guys are always arguing where we are in the pattern. To say there is "no way" is just being obtuse.
We all know you're bearish, but your bias is incredible. Don't let it blind you.
I just closed my shorts around 1080 cash SP. I will be looking for an entry to go long from around the 1060-1075 range.
Jeff, interesting comment. I follow an Elliott guy as well as watch for those patterns on charts. They DO NOT guide me for scalps or swings..>PRICE ACTION ONLY is the way to trade the ES, in my opinion. I will use the Elliott W2 to W3 to support my trades but only as one of many tools but only on a 5-minute chart, and holding for 10 to 60 minutes or less....I want to trade towards SWINGS but only seem to gain on scalps due to a lack of guts. I have a nervous close finger.
Anyway, let's continue to discuss the Elliott here along with Carl's guidance and other input...it is interesting. Have you looked at Caldaro?
He has been a bit confused on the wave legs lately and is unsure.
1066.50 will not be broken today. We will go higher as wave C of the wave ii correction. If the wave C takes us above 50% retracement from th elow at 1066.50, then the we will continue higher and all of the correction may be over, as per Carl's rythmic prediction.
I agree Kishore...short covering already happening here....could pull back to the 1077 level and then continue the trend..if you counter trade up, then close near that level...IMHO.
Love your site Carl and think highly of your skills, BUT, do you think your "1200" bias might be clouding your short term trading judgment? That add earlier this morning to a losing position is a no-no. You know that.
I'd just evaluate whether that fixation on "1200" might be causing you to miss some important short term info. It looks like you are too focused on trying to catch a bottom here.
Jeff, I like your comments. It's like a free subscription to Elliott Wave. However, I agree with khoekz that you should be a little more respectful of others views (especially the host).
Carl, I was stopped out this morning also. I think this job data tomorrow might be the nail in the coffin for the bulls. 1200 seems possible in time but there are a lot of battles to be fought on the way up. 1104. 1115. 1130. 1150. I look forward to your next post.
I do not think that Jeff expressing a sincere opinion is going to offend Carl...Carl has some very thick skin. Look at his trading if you do not think so.
Conviction trading takes guts. Jeff is also counter here...that is fine with me as long as folks back up their data with the kind of things that Carl shows us..whether that is contrary to Carl or not. I can also be considered conspicuously countering Carl's trades but he respectfully posts my comments as well.
If someone acts like a jerk, well then I agree and Carl will likely comment as he has in the past.
Just went long UPRO at 134. I expect at least a small jump from here. I will likely add even if we drop a bit down to the 1060 cash SP level. Within a week or two, I expect to the market to be trading in the 1100-1130 range.
There have been many periods where the SPX has traded in a less than 100pt range for 6 months or longer. These periods have been right after a 60% or so retracement. I think this is a middle option that many are missing.
I, like Jeff here, am concerned Wave 3 has begun. If you believe EWT is at all valid, you might want to be concerned as well.
Does Carl respond to any of the comments here? I am particularly interested in his thougths on EW and how he has used/seen it used over the years.
I am an eternal optimist, but i trade the prices I see. Right now it is very difficult to say anything bullish other than the dollar futures just hit the 38.2% fib so we might have a slight dollar pullback to give the market a little rocket fuel instead of this headwind the dollar has provided since the ascent from 74.
I apologize if I offended anyone and meant no disrespect for our wonderful blog host. Suffice to say I make no qualms about being very long-term bearish for the number of reasons I've outined in prior posts (i.e. Wave B retraced 53% retracment of Wave A top from 2007, weekly MACD and Slow STO have rolled over, major foreign indexes rolled right after hitting their respective 50 month moving averages, you can draw a straight line from the Nove 2007 high, April/May 2008 high, and January 2009 high). There are other intermediate term indicators as well.
On that note, I believe if we don't bounce right here, right now and clear 1083 in the next day, Wave III down is underway. And yes, short-term Elliott theory has it flaws, which is why I constantly update my figures, but overall, my long-term approach will remained unimpaired.
For anyone interested in my update numbers, Wave III down should take us down 1.618X Wave I down, or 79 points x 1.618 = ~128 points. Subtracting 128 from 1104 (Wave II high) takes me to 975 or so sometime in the next 2-3 weeks.
Carl, Whew, whatever happened to the days with 3 comments? Well, I guess I may be correct on my early morning post about 1030 being the correction low, but I certainly haven't taken advantage of my prescience. I think we will now rise to about 1082 on the ES and fall again (mid point of fall + clear resistance). 80.05 on the dollar should provide temporary support but I do believe it will be broken to the upside. All the best and thanks again!
This correction will end no matter what. Whether it's tomorrow or two months from now. Who cares. The market will hit 1,200 before June 30, maybe as early as late March. The economy is going up not down. We are just coming out of a recession (the biggest since the great depression), how can anybody think this market is going down long term?
Well, Bill... 1. you have rampant unemployment even with a initial increase in factory/sales due to re-inventory (your "coming out" - nothing is solid yet) 2. you have the Euro on the verge of collapse 3. you have companies not hiring b/c they are worried about the economy (see #1)
Question: 1150 = ~75% of 1576 (high in '07)
You really think the economy is at 75% of the '07 highs?
With that said... I'll play what the market gives me. This morning it gave me a sell, so I sold my long and went short. Made 0 on the long, but made 4% on the short (so far).
no way,no chance that will happen Carl. Any break below 1075 means Wave III down has began and we are going below 1000 in the next week or so.
ReplyDeleteBecuse the retracement from the low at ES = 1066.50 was only 38.2%,there is a good chance of the support at 1066.50 will be broken and we will see lower lows, if not today, maybe tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteBut then, the we may be only in wave B of the retracemnet and wave C up will take us higher too 1114 or so, as jeff is saying.
ReplyDeleteno way? no chance?
ReplyDeletewho are you Jeff? Seriously, be at least a little objective, especially knowing Carl's track record. EWT is played, it works in retrospect, but the EWT guys are always arguing where we are in the pattern. To say there is "no way" is just being obtuse.
We all know you're bearish, but your bias is incredible. Don't let it blind you.
I just closed my shorts around 1080 cash SP. I will be looking for an entry to go long from around the 1060-1075 range.
Good day, kind sirs.
Jeff, interesting comment. I follow an Elliott guy as well as watch for those patterns on charts. They DO NOT guide me for scalps or swings..>PRICE ACTION ONLY is the way to trade the ES, in my opinion. I will use the Elliott W2 to W3 to support my trades but only as one of many tools but only on a 5-minute chart, and holding for 10 to 60 minutes or less....I want to trade towards SWINGS but only seem to gain on scalps due to a lack of guts. I have a nervous close finger.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, let's continue to discuss the Elliott here along with Carl's guidance and other input...it is interesting. Have you looked at Caldaro?
He has been a bit confused on the wave legs lately and is unsure.
1066.50 will not be broken today. We will go higher as wave C of the wave ii correction. If the wave C takes us above 50% retracement from th elow at 1066.50, then the we will continue higher and all of the correction may be over, as per Carl's rythmic prediction.
ReplyDeleteEven though today is a trend day, as per the market internals, going short from here on will be very risky. Wave C up should lead the way.
ReplyDeleteI agree Kishore...short covering already happening here....could pull back to the 1077 level and then continue the trend..if you counter trade up, then close near that level...IMHO.
ReplyDeleteLove your site Carl and think highly of your skills, BUT, do you think your "1200" bias might be clouding your short term trading judgment? That add earlier this morning to a losing position is a no-no. You know that.
ReplyDeleteI'd just evaluate whether that fixation on "1200" might be causing you to miss some important short term info. It looks like you are too focused on trying to catch a bottom here.
Jeff,
ReplyDeleteI like your comments. It's like a free subscription to Elliott Wave. However, I agree with khoekz that you should be a little more respectful of others views (especially the host).
Carl,
I was stopped out this morning also. I think this job data tomorrow might be the nail in the coffin for the bulls. 1200 seems possible in time but there are a lot of battles to be fought on the way up. 1104. 1115. 1130. 1150. I look forward to your next post.
cheers,
Nick
Up or down? The market can also move sideways in a range for awhile between 1072-1105
ReplyDeletejeff, I waited for that wave 3 or iii or July and November and lost a fortune.
ReplyDeleteAs long as we are above the 200 day EMA, THE TREND ON DAILY CHARTS IS UP.
I still believe this correction will end tomorrow-- maybe as late as Monday.
ReplyDeleteI do not think that Jeff expressing a sincere opinion is going to offend Carl...Carl has some very thick skin. Look at his trading if you do not think so.
ReplyDeleteConviction trading takes guts. Jeff is also counter here...that is fine with me as long as folks back up their data with the kind of things that Carl shows us..whether that is contrary to Carl or not. I can also be considered conspicuously countering Carl's trades but he respectfully posts my comments as well.
If someone acts like a jerk, well then I agree and Carl will likely comment as he has in the past.
Just went long UPRO at 134. I expect at least a small jump from here. I will likely add even if we drop a bit down to the 1060 cash SP level. Within a week or two, I expect to the market to be trading in the 1100-1130 range.
ReplyDeleteAs always, good luck to all
There have been many periods where the SPX has traded in a less than 100pt range for 6 months or longer. These periods have been right after a 60% or so retracement. I think this is a middle option that many are missing.
ReplyDeleteHi there,
ReplyDeleteI, like Jeff here, am concerned Wave 3 has begun. If you believe EWT is at all valid, you might want to be concerned as well.
Does Carl respond to any of the comments here? I am particularly interested in his thougths on EW and how he has used/seen it used over the years.
I am an eternal optimist, but i trade the prices I see. Right now it is very difficult to say anything bullish other than the dollar futures just hit the 38.2% fib so we might have a slight dollar pullback to give the market a little rocket fuel instead of this headwind the dollar has provided since the ascent from 74.
Best of luck!
Lower rising trendline broken (DAILY). Looks like next major support is 1030 unless we close above the trendline today.
ReplyDeleteCarl and others,
ReplyDeleteI apologize if I offended anyone and meant no disrespect for our wonderful blog host. Suffice to say I make no qualms about being very long-term bearish for the number of reasons I've outined in prior posts (i.e. Wave B retraced 53% retracment of Wave A top from 2007, weekly MACD and Slow STO have rolled over, major foreign indexes rolled right after hitting their respective 50 month moving averages, you can draw a straight line from the Nove 2007 high, April/May 2008 high, and January 2009 high). There are other intermediate term indicators as well.
On that note, I believe if we don't bounce right here, right now and clear 1083 in the next day, Wave III down is underway. And yes, short-term Elliott theory has it flaws, which is why I constantly update my figures, but overall, my long-term approach will remained unimpaired.
For anyone interested in my update numbers, Wave III down should take us down 1.618X Wave I down, or 79 points x 1.618 = ~128 points. Subtracting 128 from 1104 (Wave II high) takes me to 975 or so sometime in the next 2-3 weeks.
as i have said before, you are a skillful momentum caller, but fundamentalyy still just guessing.
ReplyDeleteCarl,
ReplyDeleteWhew, whatever happened to the days with 3 comments? Well, I guess I may be correct on my early morning post about 1030 being the correction low, but I certainly haven't taken advantage of my prescience. I think we will now rise to about 1082 on the ES and fall again (mid point of fall + clear resistance). 80.05 on the dollar should provide temporary support but I do believe it will be broken to the upside. All the best and thanks again!
Great discussion everyone - some real great views. The volatility as of late has been tremendous - may it continue into the year.
ReplyDeleteThanks and regards - MK
To all the bears:
ReplyDeleteThis correction will end no matter what. Whether it's tomorrow or two months from now. Who cares. The market will hit 1,200 before June 30, maybe as early as late March. The economy is going up not down. We are just coming out of a recession (the biggest since the great depression), how can anybody think this market is going down long term?
Well, Bill...
ReplyDelete1. you have rampant unemployment even with a initial increase in factory/sales due to re-inventory (your "coming out" - nothing is solid yet)
2. you have the Euro on the verge of collapse
3. you have companies not hiring b/c they are worried about the economy (see #1)
Question: 1150 = ~75% of 1576 (high in '07)
You really think the economy is at 75% of the '07 highs?
With that said...
I'll play what the market gives me.
This morning it gave me a sell, so I sold my long and went short. Made 0 on the long, but made 4% on the short (so far).