I'm wondering what you think about the cover of Barron's this week: "Double Dip? Hell, No!" A super majority of economists are bullish. At worst, the economy will grow slowly and unemployment will slowly decrease; the upside, on the other hand, is great. As a contrarian, with the consensus strongly in one direction, this must raise an alarm. The theme of this cover story is being repeated in other publications.
Carl, I thought we had topped last Friday but I now think that we will ST top tomorrow (3/23), then bottom by next Monday or Tuesday (3/30 or 3/31) to launch a wonderfully bullish April. The NAS has met a very long-term overhead TL (from the 2000 and 2007 highs and there has to be a pullback of sorts).
Urban...i think Carl has pointed out many times that the news services and CNBC etc are generally always bullish, so one has to look at the general public to determine the true underlying view. I believe that Carl still feels that the general investing public is still bearish and therefore the proper contrarian view is to be bullish.
Mr. Futia, Great Trade! We blew through the Darvas Box you drew but I'm not sure it will hold. I figured there would be a stronger bearish reaction to the Health Care bill.
Urban, Thanks for pointing the cover out. People's comments on the Barron's website towards the article totally reject the semi-optimistic notion. The article could be setting up another pull back before moving higher, imo. A bearish "crowd" is still at large. Until this group is broken down and a bullish crowd is formed the contrarian view should remain long term bullish. Cheers!, Nick
Kishore - a word of unsolicited advice. If you want to make money, stop reading and parroting zero hedge. If you're so sure that there is no turning back before 1165.5, BUY now.
I'm a trader. I want to make money. Who cares why if its HFT, PPT, GS or Bernanke or stupid bulls driving the market? Permabears have been saying this since the last 400 points on the SPX. I stopped listening 200 points ago, thank God.
Win, please note the time stamp on my earlier posting. ES was then at 1158. However, based on what has transpired since then, the retest of 1165.5, IMHO, was flunked. We should now see a powerful wave down.
Unfortunately, I am not qualified to give any trading advice to anyone, and often I myself do not take my own advice, so please make your own decision.
Win, it is important to know who is doing the trading. We can tell it is primarily the computers when the number of ticks per volume on constant volume charts is large. Unlike the earlier move down from the high of 1165.50, the move up from 1147 was driven entirely by computer trading. In other words, only HFT computers are buying this market. It appears they can no longer find any suckers to buy high.
The number of ticks per volume on constant volume charts is SMALL, when computers are doing most of the trading. In other words, the volume per tick is large.
very nice trade.
ReplyDeleteThe internals weakened again -- ES rallied back to 1155, where it was at 4 PM on Friday, but the # of NYSE adv-dec issues was at negative 600.
ReplyDeleteWhy did you get out? The gap?
ReplyDeleteThanks.
I'm wondering what you think about the cover of Barron's this week: "Double Dip? Hell, No!" A super majority of economists are bullish. At worst, the economy will grow slowly and unemployment will slowly decrease; the upside, on the other hand, is great. As a contrarian, with the consensus strongly in one direction, this must raise an alarm. The theme of this cover story is being repeated in other publications.
ReplyDeleteCarl,
ReplyDeleteNice trade...Congrats!
Jack
Carl,
ReplyDeleteI thought we had topped last Friday but I now think that we will ST top tomorrow (3/23), then bottom by next Monday or Tuesday (3/30 or 3/31) to launch a wonderfully bullish April. The NAS has met a very long-term overhead TL (from the 2000 and 2007 highs and there has to be a pullback of sorts).
Urban...i think Carl has pointed out many times that the news services and CNBC etc are generally always bullish, so one has to look at the general public to determine the true underlying view. I believe that Carl still feels that the general investing public is still bearish and therefore the proper contrarian view is to be bullish.
ReplyDeleteIf we close near the high today, I think tomorrow's trading range will be ES 1156 to 1170.
ReplyDeleteMr. Futia,
ReplyDeleteGreat Trade! We blew through the Darvas Box you drew but I'm not sure it will hold. I figured there would be a stronger bearish reaction to the Health Care bill.
Urban,
Thanks for pointing the cover out. People's comments on the Barron's website towards the article totally reject the semi-optimistic notion. The article could be setting up another pull back before moving higher, imo.
A bearish "crowd" is still at large. Until this group is broken down and a bullish crowd is formed the contrarian view should remain long term bullish.
Cheers!,
Nick
The HFT algos are at it again. They had eased off on Friday afternoon.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that there will be no turning back until we retest the high at 1165.50 for ES.
Kishore - a word of unsolicited advice. If you want to make money, stop reading and parroting zero hedge. If you're so sure that there is no turning back before 1165.5, BUY now.
ReplyDeleteI'm a trader. I want to make money. Who cares why if its HFT, PPT, GS or Bernanke or stupid bulls driving the market? Permabears have been saying this since the last 400 points on the SPX. I stopped listening 200 points ago, thank God.
Win, please note the time stamp on my earlier posting. ES was then at 1158. However, based on what has transpired since then, the retest of 1165.5, IMHO, was flunked. We should now see a powerful wave down.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I am not qualified to give any trading advice to anyone, and often I myself do not take my own advice, so please make your own decision.
Win, it is important to know who is doing the trading. We can tell it is primarily the computers when the number of ticks per volume on constant volume charts is large. Unlike the earlier move down from the high of 1165.50, the move up from 1147 was driven entirely by computer trading. In other words, only HFT computers are buying this market. It appears they can no longer find any suckers to buy high.
ReplyDeleteCorrection to the above posting:
ReplyDeleteThe number of ticks per volume on constant volume charts is SMALL, when computers are doing most of the trading. In other words, the volume per tick is large.