Guesstimates on August 23, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: On Friday the market dropped briefly below its August 16 low at 1066.25 and later closed well above that level and near the high of Friday's range. This makes me think that the drop from 1127 high on August 5 is over. We may yet see a low near 1055 early this week but I am no longer betting on it. I estimate today's day session range will be 1068-1085. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is imminent. Support is at 85.50.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.