December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1201-1215. I think the short term trend has turned upward. Next upside target is 1250. The market is on its way to 1300 over the next few months.
QQQQ: Next upside target is 55.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.
Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.
January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The 1310-20 zone should be strong support for the market. A move to new highs is underway.
SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs is underway.
Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.
For what it is worth, I think eur usd is heading towards a test of 1.19 again - irrespective of what the stock markets do. If the US economy improves and rates go up, the dollar will rally because it perceived to be doing better than everywhere else. If the economy does not do so well and stocks fall, I see the eur usd falling as the US becomes a risk off / safe haven trade. The only way I see 1.45 is if stocks absolutely crash and another massive Q3 and Q4 happen - faster than the Q about to happen in the eur zone.
ReplyDeleteAs far as usd jpy is concerned, we may have already seen the bottom at 80.50. The Japense want a weaker yen.