Guesstimates on May 14, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is again 1629-1640. The market has moved through its long term resistance zone of 1546-87. A drop of 30-40 points is imminent but I think the 1574-1587 zone defined by the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops will now be support. I am putting aside my 10% break scenario for the time being since I see no short term technical evidence of an important top here.

QQQ:  Has reached the long standing 73 target.   

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has traded below it 20 day moving average for three days now but I see the 1.2920 level as good support. I still think that a swing to 1.40 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go.  Support is at 96. The current leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.

June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.

June Gold:  The market is back below 1465 resistance. I think gold is on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  

July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  

Google: GOOG should make it to 900 on this swing up.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. AAPL has rallied above initial resistance at 430 and I think the rally will carry to 460.