Friday, May 17, 2013

Guesstimates on May 17, 2013



June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1650-1662. A drop of 30-60 points is imminent but I think the 1574-1587 zone defined by the 2000 and 2007 bull market tops will be support. I see no short term technical evidence of an important top here.
QQQ:  Has reached the long standing 73 target.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading below it 20 day moving average and has spent a couple of days below 1.2920 support. At this juncture I have to conclude that the market is headed below its April 4 low at 1.2744. Downside target is now 1.24oo
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go.  Support is at 96. The current leg up should carry the market to 108 or so.
July Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  I think gold is on its way to the next downside target at 1200-50. In any case there is strong resistance above the market in the 1520-30 breakout zone.  
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: GOOG has reached and exceeded the 900 target. Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.
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1 comment:

  1. Adsense5/18/2013 05:28:00 PM

    Hi Carl
    Not sure what you think of this
    but it fits .
    Maybe sometime in the future you
    will be able to touch on this .
    Lindsay count from the mid section
    I am using a monthly chart so considering this a bit rough.
    Point E Sept 2009
    Point F Jan 2010
    Point G April 2010
    Point H July 2010
    Point J May 2011
    My observations with this
    Point E to H should Equal
    Point H to J .
    Lindsay's Observations
    Point E to J should Equal
    Point J to A
    This places Point A Nov 2012
    Point E to A ( and sometimes C )
    Should Equal Point A to JJ
    This would project a top in
    Jan 2016 ???.
    This would also imply a new bull
    market began in Nov 2012 which
    also fell with in the 12 yrs 3 months to 12 years 8 months from the march 2000 peak .
    Looking at the Nyse cash index
    I believe Lindsay did note that a typical rally from a 12 yr 3 to 8 month cycle low lasted roughly
    7 to 8 months . this would imply
    a June July top but not a bull market peak if this mid section count has any validity .
    Should be interesting to see how this works out going forward .
    Good luck
    Joe

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