Guesstimates on October 1, 2013

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s day session range estimate is 1675-1688. The S&P 500 is still above its 50 day moving average as is the advance-decline line, while the Dow is below its 50 day moving average. I still suspect that the S&P is about to drop below its moving average and if it does the prognosis would be for at least a drop to 1599 where the break from the September 19 top would equal the size of the May-June drop. A move in the ES back above 1700 would mean that the recent drop has been only a normal reaction in an up trend and that the market is headed for new highs.

QQQ:  The Q’s have been much stronger than the other averages. Support is at 75. Upside target is still 86.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for 1.4000.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

November Crude:  Crude has put in the biggest break since the April 2013 low. I think crude is headed back to that low at 86 and possibly lower than that.

December Gold:  The market is now headed below 1200.

December Silver: The market is now headed for 15.00.

Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  The midpoint of the rally to 513 stands at 450. A close below 450 would mean that AAPL is headed below 385. In the meantime I will maintain my bullish stance.