S&P

I think the S&P is in the early stages of an uptrend which will carry it to 1350 or so by the end of the year. Here is an updated hourly chart of the September futures.

The market held support at the 1/2 point of the current box at 1202 and has now stalled at the top of the same box near 1224. How big a reaction might one expect from today's high at 1228.50?

My first guess at an answer comes from looking at the previous reaction in this uptrend. It carried the market down about 13.50 points from a high at 1215.50 on August 29. So I would guess that the biggest reaction we are likely to see would be 13.50 points down from 1228.50 or down to 1215. But I also know we are in the early stages of an uptrend. I would expect the market to get stronger from here, not weaker, and thus that the second reaction will be smaller than the first reaction.

So my conclusion is that the reaction down from 1228.50 probably ended at 1218.70 and that the market won't get as low as 1215. Next upside target will be the 1/2 point of the next box near 1246.