June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1055-1080. I still think the market will drop into the 1000-1020 range before an extended rally starts. But strength above the 1080 level will mean that the rally to 1300 is underway and that the 1036.75 low ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.
QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The market is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00 and then an extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.
July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.
SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Good Morning sir,
ReplyDeleteI'm happy today to have same guess estimates.
All I know is your biggest gift to me.
still Spend hours to learn from Your Every word which is priceless.
Wishing you the best in every aspect in life to you and your loved ones.
You play "jesus" in my trades.
There is depth in your work,lots to ponder to reach to the meaning..there success is!
Hi Carl,
ReplyDeleteIn response to tellzhang who said...
HI! PM,
Your model is wonderful. I saw you issue a sell signal right before the down term...do you have a blog for your model?
thanks
Tony
6/08/2010 09:20:00 PM
Hi Tony, thanks, you could catch all the action at the following link (if Carl is kind enough to post it):
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=57934
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Carl, you are a dreamer :-)
ReplyDelete1300 by year end......... try 1375 for a target.
Carl- I try to understand your logic but it seems to be lacking the most basic understanding of how money works and what money is. Now, to be fair no one really knows how the masses will act and what worldly events are around the corner, but all of your calls above require a massive bout of inflationary pressure to create a panic into paper assets. The only call I see as potentially accurate is gold, which is nothing more than a representative for the amount of currency in circulation. As the currency supply is squeezed the price will fall, especially for paper gold. Stocks are a much better inflation hedge as we have seen the DOW go from 40 to 10,000 on commercial bank counterfeiting. For the market to rise substantially or at all from here we need to see the commercial banks print more money to increase the money supply to spur inflation and thus spur a run on inflation hedging assets, like stocks. Now, common sense can see that debt destruction is only just begun and will destroy currency at a much faster pace than anyone can create it. There is the hyperinflation crowd out there that has been buying equities in a no volume environment and marking things up, but this is not sustainable unless we see inflation, it will just create a deeper and much more ominous fall. I see you pick 1300, what is 1300? Why not 1800 or 1100? Once you understand how money works you can see that all these numbers you throw out are arbitrary in nature. Remember that price and value are the opposite. $1300 gold is worth far less than $100 gold. If you don't believe me, walk outside right now with a $10000 gold chain on and see if anyone does anything but laugh at you. Now, when gold is $100, walk outside with a $1000 gold chain on and see if you make it home with your neck still intact. Then you may see the difference between price and value, and understand why the market does what it does. At least you wont have to keep moving the floor lower on your inflationary pipe dream every morning. Good luck and please read about currency and what it is so you are not confused why your point and figure chart is pointing you in the wrong direction on a daily basis
ReplyDeletenomorenicknames,
ReplyDeleteYou are absolutely right. I agree with your big picture theory 100%. In fact I too believe strongly that when the real debt destruction begins (it already has but the newly printed bail out money is acting as Oxygen supply to the dying patient) all the assets bubbles are going burst big time. But I have to go with Carl's TA for short term trading because money is still coming to stock market for an inflation hedge. The party will continue until Governments stop printing money. See Inflation is an Elephant but Deflation is a T-Rex. Central banks have means to deal with Elephants but not T-Rexs. So I think the markets are going to be ok until the elephant turns into T-Rex. When will that happen? no body knows, S$P at 1300, 1220, 1375, hard to predict. But the crash is coming for sure either in 2010or 2011, definitely before 2012.
Good luck to all
We had a major impulsive move for ES from 1216 to 1040.
ReplyDeleteReactions are great times for taking a breather, relax, enjoy and recharge your batteries.
A reaction even to 1083 will retrace only 38.2%.
The higher it retraces, greater will be the shoring opportunity.
The next move down will be very powerful.
Sorry, a reaction to 1083 will be only 25% retracement.
ReplyDelete25.0% 1083
38.2% 1107
50.0% 1127
61.8% 1148
It will take a lot to undo the damage done by the impulsive wave down from 1216 to 1040.
After 1148, there may be a good chance of the up move to continue but, most probably, it will crash long before that.
Thanks, Carl! It is very hard to be on the otherside of the trade (most time is right side).
ReplyDeleteThanks, PM!
Best Regards to all of you!
Tony
nomorenicknames!
ReplyDeleteIn the big picture we are all dead.
Remember it is a zero sum game. We are born with zero and we will die with zero. Whatever you do in between is short term and if you can pinch money out in that short term, kudos to you.
Therefore sometimes thinking too much long term may not be good for trading (it may be good for philosophy).
vs-trader.blogspot.com
Not reading few disgusting comments from loosers.
ReplyDeleteSHAME SHAME ON DIRTY CRITICSM!
My teacher ,guru won again today 1077.75 is there.
Jealous of Dr.Carl Futia
1, no comparison in education
2,no one ever gave that correct guess estimates.
FEW EXTREMELY THANKLESS AND DISRESPECTFUL
TRADERS!
IS there anything left to say ,few bad people!what would you say today???
I don't read every comment,I wish Carl charge heavy from us and give this to WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME in charity.
I RESPECT HIM SO MUCH!
Carl,
ReplyDeleteI enjoy reading your analysis but I will stop reading the posted Comments....especially the same old arrogant comments from certain people that repeatedly say you have been wrong but without giving any concrete traded ideas of their own.
I suppose these people will eventually disappear like many others. Until then, it is unproductive.