Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading since the May 13 high at 1174. I have drawn blue rectangles around several corrective moves that have occurred since then. All measure between 30 and 40 points. The rally from yesterday's low at 1041 has so far carried 36 points and 40 points would put the ES at 1081.
Any strength above the 1081 level would break this rhythm of corrective moves and tell me that the drop from the April 26 top at 1216 ended at 1037 on May 25. Until that happens I am going to stick with my view that slightly lower lows lie ahead. Another 30-40 point box below yesterday's low would have its low in the 1001-1011 range. That is the worst I see on the downside before a move to 1300 begins.
Have to agree with Carl. Weakness appears likely the last week of June. This is consistent with Bill's earlier forecast of a tepid June followed by a strong July.
ReplyDeletegreat work, Sir!
ReplyDeleteTrading was easy and fun to play within your estimates.
Obliged!
Thanks chief!
ReplyDeleteI think the spike up we saw last couple of days was due to companies not taking down their guidance this week, market was expecting lower mid-quarter updates. But I still see this bottoming around 1020 in a week or two.
ReplyDeleteThanks, I couldnt of done this without you. Whats the name of your book?
ReplyDeleteI am enjoying the logic of your ranges, Carl.
ReplyDeleteSandy, I am with you - - after a visit of that 1000 level, a major obstacle and likely an exit point for the short sellers, we will bounce. At that time, Carl can then put a judgment on how strong that move is in real time with new estimates likely.
S&P has made a 50% recovery from last Fridays high of 1107 and this weeks low of 1041... at around 1075!
ReplyDeleteI will be looking for key intraday support areas of 1070 and 1064 to see if this recovery is for real...
If this pullback is shallow, we can have a powerful move up higher!
ex
I would be shorting anything close to 1063-64, as I think this market is heading lower!
ReplyDeleteex
There is no move to 1300.00 coming. We are entering a new leg down to the bear market. You have been saying for nearly two months that a move to 1300.00 is on the way. While a rally may ensue we are not going to new highs and very likely will not even reach the old high. It's amazing for the depth of your analysis how you are so fixated on a bullish outcome. This is not an attack but it always baffles me when those with intelligence fail to consider the reality of the situation. Markets go two ways and you are stuck going the wrong way currently.
ReplyDeleteHappy to hear from you, Jeff - right on time and right at the low.
ReplyDeleteChad,
ReplyDelete"THE ART OF COTRARIAN TRADING" is his book's name.
I will suggest you to read the book slowly with the intention of finding
the depth of every word.
I was new so I read three times and every day blogs are saved with me and love to spend hours to find where i'm different and why?
I can develop same guess estimates and same charts.
I make sure that following him 100%
will give you a chance to capture every move in the market.
Carl is too kind,his work is unlike others.
Don't find words to praise his work.
Once you start understanding his blog,there your massive success will start.
Following him to educate myself is a miracle.Carl plays "Jesus" in your trades if you honestly believe in his work.
Dr.Carl Futia gave me a great success.
I gave his book to my son,and all trader friends.One of the friend is major hedgefund manager and he found it very valuable.
Thanks for your time and wish you great trading!
Naveedade, I know hes really good
ReplyDeleteas he is correct 47% of the time according to the stock guru watchdog group.
The box theroy has been around for a while and seems to provide an interesting but very WIDE daily trading range.
Chad, what group is that (stock guru watchdog)? I would like to read what they have to say.
ReplyDeleteCarl,
ReplyDeleteYup, if SP breaks thru the 1040 level most likely going to retracement level (like you said) 1010 or 1000 which there is major support and confluence.
Who knows... maybe we hold here and SP go up to the 1090 level?
But, there is some crazy Geopolitical S*%t happening that trumps tech analysis currently.
A lot of risk in the market now. Big fights between the Bulls and Bears in this 1040-1074 levels.
Thanks for the updates Carl,
Jack
Schneidehouse!
ReplyDeleteWhat a question!
Believing 100% in Carl's resulted in big success otherwise this
mix and match doesn't work to me.
I spend hours on blog and go through maximum on weekend.all saved blogs are the best gift I could dream for.
Carl,you are a wonderful teacher to me!
Live long with your loved ones!