Monday, December 01, 2014

Guesstimates on December 1, 2014



December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2052-64. If the ES starts spending time below 2048 a drop of 45-50 points will be underway. But in any event I see no sign that the move up from the October low at 1813 is over.
QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.
January Crude:   Last night crude dropped as low as 63.72, right in the middle of what I think is its “fair value” zone. I think the market will take a breath here and probably rally $10-20 but I also think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down close to the 2008 low at 33.  
February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1200-10.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 130.  Support is at 108-110.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.

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