Guesstimates on December 2, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2037-57. If the ES starts spending time below 2048 as I now expect it to do a drop of 45-50 points will be underway. Even so I see no sign that the move up from the October low at 1813 is over.

QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.

January Crude:   Crude has dropped as low as 63.72, right in the middle of what I see as its “fair value” zone. I think the market will now take a breath and probably rally $10-20. I still think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down close to the 2008 low at 33.

February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1200-10.

March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.

Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.

Alibaba: Next upside target is 130.  Support is at 102-104.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.