Guesstimates on November 21, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2060-2072. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  Even so the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.

QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.

January Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 or below.  

December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1200-10.

December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.

Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.

Alibaba: Next upside target is 130.  Support is at 108-110.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.

Guesstimates on November 20, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2036-2048. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  I had thought that this would start from about 2050 and the market reached that level Tuesday. But so far there is no sign of concentrated selling and until such selling begins I think the ES will move higher. In any case the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.

QQQ: Upside target at 102 has been reached. Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.

January Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 or below.  

December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.

December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.

Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.

Alibaba: Next upside target is 130.  Support is at 108-110.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.

yen and euro

Here are monthly bar charts of the Japanese yen (top) and the Euro (bottom).

Japan and the euro-zone are the two arenas where central banks (the BOJ and the ECB) are battling declining nominal gross domestic product by pursuing policies of quantitative easing. These policies, if implemented with determination and persistence, will increase growth rates of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) by raising asset prices, depreciating the domestic currency, and encouraging investment. The increase in asset prices will be world-wide and not simply domestic since these are two of the world's biggest economies. So these QE policies have positive implications for the US stock market too.

The Bank of Japan is aggressively pursuing a QE policy and I expect this will continue until Japan's nominal GDP shows a pattern of strong growth. As long as the BOJ sticks with its QE policy the trend in Japanese stock prices will be upward and the trend in the yen downward. I think the yen will probably drop into the 68-70 zone (top chart). This would correspond to a dollar-yen level of about 1.45 versus the current 1.17.

In Europe the ECB's QE policy currently is mostly verbal posturing. but I think the European economies will so underperform expectations that Germany will panic and loosen the reins holding back the ECB. This may first require a further drop in European stock prices below their October lows. But when all is said and done I think the Euro will plunge below the 1.16-1.20 zone encompassing the lows of the past eight years and continue down to 0.82, the level of the 2000 low 14 years ago.

Of course, should either or both of these central banks halt their QE policies before they attain the desired results their respective currencies will reverse course and head upward. Indeed I think we can monitor the central banks' determination to stick with QE policies by seeing if the downtrend in currency prices continues. I think it will but I try not to underestimate the difficulty of pursuing sensible monetary policy, difficulty the 1929-1932 world depression exemplifies.

Guesstimates on November 19, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2043-2054. The next reaction will probably be 45-50 points.  I had thought that this would start from about 2050 and the market reached that level yesterday. But so far there is no sign of concentrated selling and until such selling begins I think the ES will move higher. In any case the market is headed for my 2090 target and probably higher than that.

QQQ: Upside target at 102 has been reached. Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 120.

January Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 or below.  

December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target.

December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.

Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.

Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.

Twitter: Upside target is 66. Support is at 40.

Alibaba: Next upside target is 130.  Support is at 108-110.

Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.