Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
Friday, October 30, 2009
Since yesterday's high at 1064 was a lower top I have to expect that the market will drop visibly below Wednesday's low at 1037.25. So far today we have hit 1033 but I am guessing that the e-minis will drop further to 1025 or so before turning around (green oval). Already midpoint support at 1044 and support at the last top at 1038 have been broken decisively. By itself this is not enough to force me off of my "up to 1120" scenario for the next few weeks. But any significant activity below the 1008 level would mean that the market will drop even lower, to 960 or so. The last low on the way up was at 1012 on October 12. The June-July break was 91 points and a drop from 1099 of that size would take the market down to 1008.
I want to emphasize that I still think this break is a good buying opportunity and that my "line in the sand" will not be breeched.
Broke support
Guesstimates on October 30, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1054-70. The market is on its way to 1120.
QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.
GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
1037.25 was the low of the correction
The initial leg up will probably match the size of the biggest reaction on the way down - about 25 points (purple rectangles). This would bring the e-minis up to 1062-63, a level that is also midpoint resistance (purple dotted line). After a reaction from there which should end at a higher low the market will resume an advance that I expect will carry it to 1120 or higher.
Guesstimates on October 29, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1038-53. The market has started a base building process and will soon begin a move to 1120.
QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.
GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Late post
I expect to repurchase this unit Thursday and possibly buy the second one provided the market can hold the 1035 level.
Scraping bottom
There is strong support here. At the 1049 level the length of this reaction would have equaled the average length of the three preceding reactions on the way up from the early July low at 866 (purple rectangle). The 1044 level is midpoint support based on last reaction which carried the e-minis down from 1076 to a low at 1012 (electronic) on October 2 (purple dotted line). The rising trend line from previous reaction lows now stands at about the 1040 level.
I think the next day or two will be spent trading sideways between 1040 and 1065. By the beginning of next week a rally to 1120 should be underway.
Guesstimates on October 28, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1048-63. The market should start a base building process today and by the end of the week start a move to 1120.
QQQ: Support is at 42.30. Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.
GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Update
By the end of the week I think the market will have dropped into the 1045-50 target zone highlighted by the green oval. The 1050 level would make this break the same size as the average of the past three reaction since the early July low at 866. The target are is also at the confluence of two trend lines you see on this chart.
Thus far I have no reason to think the drop from 1099 in the e-minis is anything but a normal correction within an ongoing up trend. If I am right about this then I think the market will soon begin a rally that will take it to 1120.
Guesstimates on October 27, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1055-1072. The market is on its way to 1050.
QQQ: Support is at 42.30. Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.
GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Yo-Yo redux
Instead the e-minis pulled yet another U-turn, this time on very high volume (second set of blue arrows. Volume matched the level it attained on Thursday's late break and the market dropped to new reaction lows. The sellers have reasserted their control over this market. I am going back to my original downside target for this reaction which should be reached later this week. It is the green oval which marks the confluence of a rising trendline, a declining trendline, and the bottom of a reaction (purple rectangle) that would match the average length of the last three reactions on the way up from the early July low at 866.
The Yo-Yo
Guesstimates on October 26, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1065-1082. The market is now on its way to 1050.
QQQ: Support is at 42.30. Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.
GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Update
Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading. The market has dropped decisively below yesterday's midpoint at 1081.50. From this I conclude that a lower top was established this morning and that the reaction which started from the 1099 level has further to go.
The purple rectangle delimits a reaction which matches the average length of the three previous corrections in the e-minis since the early July low at 866. Thus my downside target of 1050. I think this entire drop will continue well into next week. There should be one or two up days along the way.
The next temporary low (green oval) will probably occur against one of the two declining red dash trend lines. I note that the 1064 level is also the midpoint between the October 2008 low of 837 and the high of September 2008 at 1291 (higher purple dotted line).
By the time this correction ends I expect the market to kiss the rising green trend line which should then have reached the 1050 area. The 1054 level is the midpoint between the May 2008 high of 1442 and the March 2009 low at 666 (lower purple dotted line).
Once this drop ends I expect the e-minis to resume their advance and move up to 1120 or above.
Jumbled
After the housing number came out at 10am this morning the e-minis pulled a high volume, u-turn that broke the market out of its overnight trading range (last blue rectangle). This action forced me out of my long position even though the bottom of my range estimate was 1085. The reason I ignored the range estimate is that the high volume selling started at almost exactly the same price as Wednesdays high volume selling (red arrows). I figured that the same sellers were at work. The big uncertainty now is just how much ammunition they have left in their clip.
I still think that the odds favor the market heading for 1120 instead of for 1050. The critical line of support I am watching is the midpoint of yesterday's range (green dash line). If the market holds it I will try to get long later today or on Monday.
Guesstimates on October 23, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1085-1100. The market is now on its way to 1120.
QQQ: Support is at 42.30. Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.
GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Moment of truth
Supply shock
How low will we go? During the move up from the early July low at 866 there have been three significant breaks of 40, 47, and 63 points. The average is 50 points. A break of this size from the 1099 electronic high would carry the market down to 1049 (purple rectangle). I expect this down move to last a week or so. By the time the low develops I think the rising lower channel line (green dashes) will have moved up to also provide support near 1050.
I think this initial break will find initial support in the 1060-65 range from which zone a rally to 1080 or so should develop. After that the final break to 1050 or so becomes likely. (purple arrows).
Guesstimates on October 22, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1065-1080. I now think the drop from yesterday's high will carry the e-minis down to 1050 or so over the next few days. I am still expecting a rally to 1120 or higher after this break ends.
QQQ: Support is at 42.30. Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.
GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Late Break
Guesstimates on October 21, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1075-1090. The market should reach 1120 by the end of the month.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.
GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Update
The September top at 1076 (horizontal dash green line) should prove to be strong support. It coincides with the low of the recent trading range. So far the e-minis have dropped from yesterday's day session high by an amount just about equal to the size of the last reaction on the way up from the October 2 low (purple rectangles). I expect to see a reaction low in the 1075-80 range (green oval) which should be followed by a rally to roughly the 1110 level.
Guesstimates on October 20, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1087-1103. The market should reach 1120 by the end of the month.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance at 76.00 has been broken but not by much.
GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Why I got out
Update
My upside target (purple oval) sits between two upper channel lines (green dash lines) in the 1100-05 zone.
I think it likely that the next several trading sessions will see a lot of up and down activity without a lot of net progress past 1105. For the moment support beneath the market stands at the midpoint of the last reaction, near 1086 (purple dotted line).
I expect the e-minis to reach the 1120 level by the end of the month.
Reporting your own trades
I have decided to adopt a policy of not publishing such trade reports. My main reason is that such trade reporting just obscures my own message about market direction as it appears in my real time trade posts and analyses on this blog.
I still want to encourage you to tell us of your market views in the comments section. Just not your trades.
Guesstimates on October 19, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: A drop into the 1065-75 range is underway. Today's day session range estimate is again 1075-1090. The market should reach 1120 by the end of the month.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance at 76.00 has been broken but not by much.
GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target is 550 has been reached. Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Update
One this reaction is complete I think the e-minis will move above the 1100 level, reaching 1120 by the end of the month.
Guesstimates on October 16, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: A drop into the 1065-75 range is underway. [Today's day session range estimate is again 1075-1090. The market should reach 1120 by the end of the month.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance at 76.00 has been broken but not by much.
GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Next upside target is 550 has nearly been reached. Support is now at 490.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Some observations
I think the day session low at 1083 will hold for the rest of the session. I am guessing that the market will rally into the 1090-95 range by the close. But I still think a 20-30 point break lies just ahead.
Guesstimates on October 15, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1075-1090. A move to 1120 is underway.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
At resistance
Guesstimates on October 14, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1075-1090. A move to 1120 is underway.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
At support
Guesstimates on October 13, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is again 1065-1080. A move to 1120 is underway.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Almost at 1070 but market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1000.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Shanghai Update
Guesstimates on October 12, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1065-1080. A move to 1120 is underway.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Friday, October 09, 2009
Guesstimates on October 9, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1053-1070. A move to 1120 is underway.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
Update
Meantime there is midpoint support at 1050 (purple dotted line). The biggest reaction on the way up from Friday's low has been about 14 points. If a drop from today's high of that size were to develop it would take the market down to 1052. Obviously, the fact that I am currently long a full position means that I do not expect a reaction of that size today, but I do think a 13-15 point break from the 1075-80 zone is more likely than not.
Guesstimates on October 8, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1056-1075. A move to 1120 is underway.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Update
In either case I think that the market will soon rally to the top of the bullish channel on this chart and reach midpoint resistance at 1092. I am still looking for a move to 1120 during the next few weeks.
Guesstimates on October 7, 2009
December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1042-1060. A move to 1120 is underway.
QQQ: Next upside target is 45.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Yields have dropped more than I expected. Still I think this market has a good chance of holding the 3.90 yield zone and then starting a move to 5.00%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think that the 3.10% level will provide support and that the market will soon begin a swing up to 4.30%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.
November Crude: I now think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 76.00.
GLD – December Gold: Still expecting a move to 1070. Support is at 970.
SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.
Google: Upside target at 500 has been reached. Support is at 450. Next upside target is 550.